Brazilian beef exports decrease by almost 10% in 2021

The Brazilian and Argentine beef markets had an unusual year in 2021. Traditional animal protein producers, the two countries witnessed their exports decline in 2021, particularly in the last months of the year.

DataLiner data show that comparing the first eleven months of 2020 to the same period in 2021, Brazilian beef exports fell by 9.92% while Argentina reduced its exports by 13.84%.

See below a month-to-month comparison of Brazilian beef exports in the last three years. The data is from DataLiner:

Brazilian Beef Exports (HS 0202) | Jan to Nov 2019-2021 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The reduction seen in Brazilian exports can be explained by the beef embargo imposed on the Chinese market. On September 4, 2021, Brazil voluntarily suspended exports to China after the identification of two cases of mad cow disease in the country.

The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) recognized that these were atypical episodes and that the risk to the national herd was negligible. Despite this, China maintained the embargo on Brazilian meat for more than three months, until December 15 of the same year.

The drop in Argentine beef shipments occurred for a different reason: motivated by the high price of the product on the domestic market, the country’s government suspended protein exports in May. “As a consequence of the sustained increase in the price of beef in the domestic market, the national government decided to implement a set of emergency measures to better organize the sector, restricting speculative practices, improving the traceability of exports and avoiding tax evasion in trade,” said the statement issued at the time.

Other measures were implemented, and the country’s export ban on certain cuts of beef was extended until the end of 2023 in January of this year.

Check below a month-to-month chart of Argentine beef exports in the last three years. The data is from DataLiner:

Argentine Beef Exports (HS 0202) | Jan to Nov 2019-2021 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Uruguay, on the other hand, benefited from the problems faced by Brazil and Argentina to export beef and saw its shipments increase by 35.42% (Jan-Nov 2020-2021), reaching its record in October 2021 with over 3,000 TEUs exported.

The chart below illustrates the situations faced by Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay in the last year:

Comparison of beef exports from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay  (HS 0202) | Jan to Nov 2021 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

See the chart below for a comparison of beef exports from the ECSA region over the last two years. The data is from the DataLiner:

ECSA Beef Exports (HS 0202) | Jan to Nov 2020-2021 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Outlook for 2022

With Argentina’s export woes persisting, Brazil’s outlook for 2022 should be brighter, with China restarting shipments and the dollar favorable to exports.

According to consulting analyst Safras&Mercado Fernando Iglesias, the restoration of Chinese exports will occur, albeit slowly.

“The expectation is that things will go well. The market is already demonstrating this with the signing of new contracts. Exports will continue in a satisfactory manner, with China once again making a significant contribution to Brazilian beef exports,” he concludes.

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