HomeNewsArgentina revises wheat harvest down to 19.2m tons in the 2018/19 crop year
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Argentina revises wheat harvest down to 19.2m tons in the 2018/19 crop year

Nov, 28, 2018 Posted by datamarnews

Week 201848

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has revised its forecast downwards for Argentina’s wheat harvest from 19.4m to 19.2m tons in the 2018-29 crop year. Meanwhile, the country’s wheat stock price is expected to rise after December and January as supply gets scarce. It is believed that the wheat price for December loading will be at US$218 per ton FOB and in January at US$222. According to Argentina’s soy industry chamber (ACSOJA), the country’s hope to ship soymeal to China has stalled due to China first wanting to inspect local crushing plants. Argentina is keen to seize the opportunity to ship soymeal to China whilst the trade war between the US and China continues.

Supporting Sources:

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/argentinas-2018-19-wheat-harvest-seen-at-19-2-mln-tonnes-exchange/

Argentina’s 2018-19 wheat harvest seen at 19.2 mln tonnes -exchange

Argentina’s 2018-19 wheat crop is seen at 19.2 million tonnes, lower than the 19.4 million tonnes estimated previously, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.

Argentina is one of the world’s major exporters of wheat, shipping much of its harvest to its neighbor, Brazil.

Argentinian wheat prices to become supportive of global prices from Q1 2019: trade

Argentinian wheat is expected to become bullish after December and January as supply gets tighter and the carry per month gets stronger, market sources said this week.
Currently, global prices are expected to dampen in December and January on the Argentinian harvest taking place, with around 40% of it expected to be completed by the end of November.
But with 30% of the new crop already sold, a figure considered high at this stage due to December being mostly committed and January sales at full capacity, sources expect the carry to pick up from February onward.
Argentinian wheat was heard offered on a FOB basis late Thursday for December loading at $218/mt, while January is offered at $222/mt.
Equivalent Russia-origin wheat is offered at $226/mt and $231/mt, respectively, showing a much higher carry.
But from February, when Argentina is expected to focus sales on Brazil, deals are expected to happen at $225/mt and $230/mt in March, rising further in April if wheat is still available to be exported.
The most recent USDA WASDE report expects Argentina to export 14.2 million mt of the 19.5 million mt of wheat it is forecast to produce.

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