Maersk fleet plans show huge divergence with rival MSC

The world’s top two containerlines are charting opposing courses as they ready to go their separate ways from next year.

Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) now has a fleet in excess of 6m teu, commanding a 20% share of the global operated container fleet while Maersk, which was the largest liner in the world through to the start of 2022, is seeing its market share erode significantly as it sticks to its fleet size cap policy instigated under previous CEO Soren Skou.

Maersk’s global market share today stands at 14.4% according to Alphaliner, which also notes that five top 10 carriers now have orderbooks bigger than the Danish liner.

Moreover, Maersk today vowed it would be sticking to its fleet size cap policy for the rest of the decade. Since 2018, Maersk has adopted a logistics integrator strategy, focusing on a wide range of logistics investments rather than being a pure container carrier.

“As we look ahead, our focus remains on leveraging organic growth while exploring opportunities for value-accretive acquisitions particularly in logistics,” commented Vincent Clerc, who took over from Skou as CEO at the start of last year.

Maersk’s interims saw it lag its liner peers in terms of operating margin. EBIT decreased by $2.8bn to $1.1bn. The EBIT margin decreased by 10% year-on-year to 4.5%.

“The group could come under pressure from shareholders for the [logistics integrator] strategy if financial returns do not improve,” Alphaliner warned in its latest weekly report.

As well as unveiling its interims today, Maersk outlined its newbuild policy through to 2030, with two notable news items. First, its intention not to increase its fleet size above today’s 4.3m teu through to the end of the decade, and secondly, Maersk’s admission that it will proceed with orders for dual fuel ships which can use bio-LNG, a fuel type the carrier had previously dismissed.

Maersk said today it is in the process of signing newbuilding orders and time-charter contracts for dual-fuel vessels matching the planned renewal pace of around 160,000 teu per year.

Maersk has elected a mix of methanol and liquified gas dual-fuel propulsion systems.

“While green methanol is likely to become the most competitive and scalable pathway to decarbonization in the short term, Maersk also foresees a multifuel future for the industry which includes liquified bio-methane,” the company stated in a release.

“These orders will not add to the overall capacity and over time every vessel coming in will be replacing a scrapped vessel having reached end of life, ensuring that we maintain our fleet size at around 4.3m teu,” said Ahmed Hassan, head of asset strategy and strategic partnerships at Maersk.

While MSC has created enough critical mass to operate alone from next year when its 2M partnership with Maersk comes to a close, the Danish carrier has reached out to Hapag-Lloyd to form the Gemini Cooperation, which will officially launch in February 2025.

Analysts at Alphaliner forecast that MSC’s market share will be equal to Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s combined come the launch of the Gemini Cooperation early next year.

At the end of April, Danish consultancy Sea-Intelligence projected what the top 10 liner rankings will look like in April 2026, taking many aspects into account, including orderbooks, the carriers’ typical approach related to redelivery of charter vessels and the sale of secondhand tonnage.

“MSC will grow their size advantage substantially compared to the second largest carrier – which incidentally will be CMA CGM, relegating Maersk to be the world’s third largest carrier,” Sea-Intelligence stated.

By April 2026, MSC is projected to have a fleet with more than 7m slots.

Splash reported on Monday (Aug 05) on how MSC has been in touch with lesser known yards in China for its next raft of newbuilds, potentially adding another 300,000 teu to its 1.2m teu orderbook.

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