Brazil’s Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Trade Faces Rare Deficit in 2024

Brazil’s fresh fruit and vegetable balance for 2024 is showing a trade deficit through August, a rather unusual performance, according to Hortifruti Brasil, a publication by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) at Esalq/USP.

In terms of fruits, Comex Stat data compiled and analyzed by Cepea’s team indicate that while this year’s exports of many fruits have performed well, imports have surged more prominently—despite the higher U.S. dollar-Brazilian Real exchange rate—leading to a significant trade deficit. This scenario is uncommon; when looking at historical data from Comex Stat, which began in 1997, the trade balance for fruits has rarely been negative, with deficits recorded only in 1997, 1998, and 2014 (based on SH08 code, which includes fruits, citrus peels, and melon rinds).

According to the Hortifruti Brasil team, the rise in imports is driven by large purchases of fruits that are not widely produced in Brazil, such as pears, kiwis, and stone fruits (plums, peaches, and nectarines), but also by purchases of fruits that are already heavily produced domestically, like apples, grapes, and oranges. In these cases, imports were necessary to supplement the reduced domestic supply.

The chart below reveals the month-over-month progression of fruit shipments inbound Brazilian terminals from January 2022 to August 2024. The chart was developed with DataLiner data, a Datamar product.

Fruit Imports in Containers | Jan 2022 – Aug 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Comex Stat data (using the SH07 code, which covers vegetables, plants, roots, and edible tubers) indicate that vegetable trade remains in deficit. Brazil is a “net importer” of these products, meaning it generally imports more than it exports.

Outlook May Change – Based on the performance so far this year (from January to August), the average of the last five years’ performance for the remaining months (September to December) indicates that fresh fruit trade balance for 2024 may close in positive territory, owing to solid export projections for mangoes, melons, watermelons, and Tahiti limes. However, the potential surplus for 2024 is likely to be modest. Import costs are rising sharply, and volumes are expected to remain high through the end of the year.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas

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