Robust 2025 Rice Harvest Poses Challenges, Highlights Export Potential

The dynamics of the rice market in 2025 are expected to be shaped by abundant supply and complex strategic challenges, according to Evandro Oliveira, an analyst and consultant at Safras & Mercado.

Brazil’s production is forecast to surpass 11.5 million tonnes, with the southern region standing out for its high-quality crop, driven by favorable weather conditions. “Across the entire Mercosur rice-producing region, output could exceed 16 million tonnes,” Oliveira notes. Harvesting is set to begin in the West Frontier by mid-February, with activity peaking between late March and early April. The industrial process will require at least 15 days post-harvest to maximize product quality and efficiency.

A substantial supply increase will inevitably put downward pressure on prices, especially during the first half of the year. Oliveira estimates the price floor for the harvest peak will range between R$80 and R$90 per 50-kilogram sack—levels that represent a breakeven point for producers, assuming efficient cost management and high productivity.

“This dynamic highlights the potential for price adjustments across the production chain, aiming to balance margins and ensure sustainability for all stakeholders,” Oliveira explains.

Exports will remain a vital mechanism for setting prices, particularly against the backdrop of weak domestic demand. A strong dollar, expected to stay above R$6.00, will enhance the competitiveness of Brazilian rice in global markets. However, increased competition in key export destinations like Africa—a major consumer of broken rice—will require strategic caution.

“The goal of shipping 2 million tonnes (on a paddy basis), a milestone reached in previous seasons, is critical to avoiding a further rise in carryover stocks heading into 2026,” Oliveira emphasizes.

Domestically, sluggish consumption observed in the latter half of 2024 is expected to persist into early 2025. Nonetheless, falling consumer prices and promotional campaigns promoting rice consumption could spark a gradual recovery. Retailers will play a pivotal role, with established brands aiming to recapture market share from discount competitors targeting price-sensitive buyers.

The exchange rate will be a decisive factor in the competitiveness of Brazilian rice abroad. Global demand will hinge on international stock levels, increased Indian exports, and Brazil’s progress in regaining logistical competitiveness over the U.S. (an estimated advantage of around $100/tonne or $5.00/sack).

“2025 will undoubtedly be a challenging year, but one filled with opportunities,” Oliveira concludes. “Success will depend on strategic management by producers and other players across the supply chain, ensuring the sector remains adaptable and sustainable in a constantly evolving market.”

Source: Safras
Click here to read the original article: https://safras.com.br/safra-robusta-de-arroz-em-2025-impoe-desafios-e-exportacoes-devem-ser-o-caminho/

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