Diesel Imports To Remain High in Brazil in 2025

Diesel imports to Brazil are expected to remain at historically high levels in 2025, driven by growing domestic demand, according to Bruno Cordeiro, a market intelligence analyst at StoneX, in a note released on Tuesday (7).

“Even with the increase in the biodiesel blend from B14 to B15, StoneX’s projection of a 3.2% rise in B-diesel consumption should ensure a 1.9% annual growth in demand for pure diesel (A-diesel) in 2025,” Cordeiro stated.

Another factor supporting this forecast is Brazil’s limited spare refining capacity, which is likely to constrain the expansion of domestic diesel production.

In 2024, diesel imports fell by 1.1% year-over-year, totaling 14.5 billion liters. This decline was mainly attributed to an advance in imports at the end of 2023, ahead of the reintroduction of fossil fuel taxes in January 2024. In December, diesel imports reached 988.6 million liters, a sharp 48% drop compared to the same month in 2023.

Cordeiro explained that increased production at Brazilian refineries (+3.1% between January and November 2024) and a higher biodiesel blend contributed to a reduced share of A-diesel in the final market.

Russia solidified its position as Brazil’s leading diesel supplier, accounting for 65.4% of total imports in 2024, up from 50.4% the previous year. “Russia’s market share growth reflects the financial competitiveness of its product, which remained attractive amid its strategy to expand exports to Latin America. Brazil has become the second-largest destination for Russian diesel, surpassing suppliers such as the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and India,” the analyst added.

Gasoline Consumption and Imports Also Expected to Grow

StoneX predicts an increase in import demand for gasoline in 2025, driven by a projected recovery in domestic consumption. According to Isabela Garcia, a StoneX analyst, gasoline consumption in Brazil is expected to rise by 3.4% in 2025, bolstered by the fuel’s increased price competitiveness at gas stations.

However, Garcia noted that import growth could be tempered if authorities approve an increase in the anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline (C-gasoline) to 30%, a measure currently under discussion.

In 2024, Brazil’s gasoline imports fell by 30.7% to 2.87 billion liters, reflecting weaker demand for fossil fuels and increased domestic supply. Between January and November, gasoline production rose 5% compared to 2023, while C-gasoline sales declined by an estimated 3.5%, influenced by the higher competitiveness of hydrous ethanol in key consumer markets.

On the other hand, in December 2024, gasoline imports surged by 63% compared to the same month in the previous year, reaching 329 million liters. This spike was attributed to increased demand during the holiday season and long-distance travel.

With gasoline consumption recovering and diesel demand remaining strong, Brazil continues to monitor the balance between domestic production and imports to meet market needs in 2025.

Source: Economia Uol

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