Soybean Exports Expected to Reach a New Record in 2024/25

Brazil’s National Crop Supply Company (Conab) forecasts record-breaking soybean exports for the 2024/25 harvest, projecting 105.47 million tonnes — surpassing the previous high of 101.86 million tonnes set in the 2022/23 season.

The 2023/24 harvest, hit by production losses, saw Brazil export 98.6 million tonnes of soybeans, 22.9 million tonnes of soybean meal, and 1.35 million tonnes of soybean oil. Notably, soybean imports surged to 900,000 tonnes in 2024, a nearly 500% increase from the 181,000 tonnes imported in 2023.

These figures are included in Conab’s fourth grain harvest report, released on Tuesday, January 14. With expectations of improved soybean yields this season, Conab has kept its export estimates steady at 22 million tonnes for soybean meal and 1.4 million tonnes for soybean oil.

Corn

Conab revised corn export projections for the 2023/24 harvest downward to 38.5 million tonnes. Domestic consumption is forecasted at 83.57 million tonnes, with ending stocks at just 2.5 million tonnes — the lowest in recent years.

Looking ahead to the 2024/25 season, corn exports are expected to decline further to 34 million tonnes as domestic consumption rises to 86.4 million tonnes. With production expansion, ending stocks are projected to rebound to 3.5 million tonnes, ensuring adequate supply for the animal protein sector.

Rice

Rice consumption for the 2023/24 cycle is projected at 10.5 million tonnes, in line with the five-year average. However, Conab reduced its export forecast to 1.5 million tonnes, citing high domestic prices, tighter availability, and a recovery in U.S. production. Consequently, ending stocks are expected to reach 393,400 tonnes.

For the 2024/25 harvest, a recovery in production and potential price declines are expected to boost rice exports to 2 million tonnes, with ending stocks rising to 1.28 million tonnes by February 2026.

Cotton and Wheat

In the cotton sector, exports for the 2024/25 cycle are projected at 2.9 million tonnes of lint.

Wheat imports are expected to increase to 6.2 million tonnes, with domestic consumption estimated at 11.89 million tonnes. Wheat exports are forecasted at 2 million tonnes.

Brazil’s Agribusiness Outlook     

With production recovering across key commodities and market adjustments underway, Brazil continues to reinforce its position as a leading global agribusiness powerhouse.

Source: Globo Rural

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