Agricultural Production Value Expected to Reach R$1.4 Trillion in 2025

After years of relative stagnation, Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts an 11.5% increase in the Gross Value of Agricultural Production (GPV) for 2025. Preliminary estimates suggest the GPV will reach R$1.418 trillion, marking a significant recovery from recent years.

According to a ministry report released this week, the nearly R$150 billion increase in agricultural revenue is expected to be driven by strong performances in crop production and livestock. Crop revenues are projected to rise by 11.2%, reaching R$941.8 billion, up from R$847.1 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, livestock revenues, including beef, poultry, and pork, are forecast to grow by 12.2%, climbing from R$425.2 billion to R$477.1 billion.

A key driver of this growth is the anticipated increase in grain harvests. The December 2024 report from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimates a more than 7% rise in grain production, reaching 306 million tonnes. Ivan Wedekin, a former secretary of agricultural policy and consultant, noted that the GPV calculation incorporates average product prices from the previous year, further strengthening the 2025 outlook.

The exchange rate, which remains higher than the 2024 average, also plays a significant role. “The GPV is updated monthly based on accumulated results, offering statistical flexibility,” explained Wedekin. “We are likely to see increased grain production, which is a positive factor, along with the advantage of a favorable exchange rate.”
In 2024, agricultural revenues fell 3.2% compared to 2023, primarily due to droughts affecting soybean and corn harvests. Revenues from these two crops dropped by 15.9% and 17.1%, respectively, bringing total agricultural revenues down from R$875.3 billion to R$847.1 billion.

However, several products showed strong growth. Cocoa revenues surged by 154.4%, while orange revenues rose by 29.5%. Coffee also posted significant gains, with revenues climbing 50.8% to R$79.59 billion, driven by R$57.63 billion from Arabica coffee and R$21.95 billion from robusta and onion varieties.

The ministry expects soybean and corn revenues to rebound sharply in 2025, with increases of 19.9% (R$360.7 billion) and 12% (R$140.8 billion), respectively. Other crops, such as cocoa, oranges, castor beans, grapes, and peanuts, are also projected to experience growth. Coffee revenues are expected to jump 35.9%, reaching R$108.12 billion

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Conversely, cotton and wheat are forecasted to decline by 2.9% and 1.5%, respectively, while sugarcane is expected to remain stable with a slight 0.3% increase. Bean revenues are projected to rise by 3.3%, while rice is expected to see a 5% decline.

Livestock revenues increased by 8.4% in 2024, from R$392.1 billion to R$425.2 billion, supported by higher revenues from beef (11.1%), pork (16.6%), and poultry (9.3%). In 2025, beef revenues are forecast to rise by 21.5%, surpassing R$200 billion for the first time in history.

Pork production is expected to grow by 17.8%, reaching R$66.1 billion, while poultry revenues are forecast to increase by 4.7%, reaching R$110.9 billion. The dairy sector is projected to recover with a 2.8% rise, while egg revenues are expected to decline by 5.2%, settling at R$24.8 billion.

Mato Grosso remains Brazil’s leading agribusiness state, with projected revenues of R$185.1 billion, followed by São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Goiás.
Despite the optimistic outlook, some crops are expected to face challenges. Potato revenues are forecast to drop by 49%, following a strong 39.8% growth in 2024. Tomatoes, bananas, and cassava are also projected to experience 27%, 15.1%, and 3.7% declines, respectively.

The 2025 forecast is more optimistic than the initial estimates released in late 2024, which projected GPV at approximately R$1.3 trillion. Key agricultural commodities such as soybeans, corn, sugarcane, coffee, and cotton continue to dominate the sector, while livestock revenues are led by beef, poultry, and dairy.

Source: Valor International

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