IBGE: 2020 harvest should hit record and reach 240.9m tons

The national grain harvest of 2020 is expected to hit a record of 240.91m tons, surpassing the expected result of 2019 by 33,600 tons. With this forecast, the 2019 and 2020 harvests should become the largest in the historical series started in 1975, ahead of the current 2017 record of 238.4m tons. The information is from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (12/10), by IBGE.

Estimates predict a 6.7% growth in soybean production and a 7.5% reduction in corn production. Beans of the first harvest should also have lower production (-0.3%). Estimates point to better prospects for cotton (2.0%) and rice (1.0%).

IBGE researcher Carlos Barradas estimates a production of 92.7m tons of corn next year, a decline of 7.5% compared to the 2019 crop, which represents a reduction of 7.5m tons. “There is a tendency for a higher volume of corn production in the second harvest, and this harvest should participate with 72.3% of national production for 2020, against 27.7% of the first corn harvest,” he said.

Soybean production should grow 6.7%, reaching 120.8m tons in 2020. Among the largest producers, Mato Grosso estimates a harvest of 33m tons, a growth of 2.2% compared to 2019. Paraná, the second largest producer, expects to produce 19.8m tons, an increase of 22.5%, recovering from a 2019 in which its crop was compromised by severe rainfall restrictions and excess heat during the crop cycle.

The following chart, based on Datamar’s DataLiner data, shows Brazilian soybean exports to Brazil and the rest of the world since 2015:

Chart Source: DataLiner/Datamar

2019 harvest should grow 6.4%

The national harvest should also reach 240.88m tons in 2019, higher than the 2017 record, with 2.4m tons more produced. The result represents a 6.4% increase compared to 2018 production (226.5m tons), and a growth of 60,600 tons compared to last October.

The increase was driven by corn, which is expected to have a record production of 100.2m in 2019 (25.9m tons of corn in the first harvest and 74.3m tons of corn in the second harvest), which represents an increase of 23.2% compared to 2018. According to Barradas, there was a price conjuncture that encouraged the planting of second harvest corn. “The weather also behaved favorably,” he said.

Cotton is also set to hit a record in IBGE’s historical series. In this year’s harvest, production should reach 6.9 tons, an increase of 39.8% over the previous year. The increase in grain planting is due to improved prices, explained Carlos Barradas.

Soybean and rice production, however, decreased. The estimate points to a harvest of 113.2m tons of soybean in 2019, which represents a 4% retraction from last year. Rice had a fall in production as a result of the reduction of 9.5% in planted area and 12% in the area to be harvested. Production is estimated at 10.3m tons of grain, a decrease of 12% compared to last year.

In 2019, the area to be harvested should be 63.2m hectares, a 3.7% growth compared to the area harvested in 2018, an increase of 2.2m hectares. Compared to October this year, the estimated area to be harvested grew by 71,300 hectares (0.1%). The previous production record was set in 2017, when 238.4m tons were produced.

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