Rumo says soy exports to China remain unaffected despite coronavirus

On Monday March 9, Rumo, Cosan’s logistics company, presented the company’s expectations for 2020 at its Cosan Day event. At the event the company’s president, João Alberto Abreu, informed that he felt “no impact” on Chinese soybean imports from Brazil due to the coronavirus epidemic.

According to him, the lineup of vessels to load soybeans at Santos “is quite robust”. “What we have been doing is monitoring crushing in China,” he said, adding that the oilseed processing at the largest global importer of the commodity returned to “original” levels after the Lunar New Year holiday, which was extended due to the increase in coronavirus cases. According to Abreu, Brazil is the largest soy exporter in the world and should register similar export volumes to China as those seen last year.

Data from the General Customs Administration indicates that China’s total soy imports in the first two months of 2020 increased 14.2% compared to 2019. However, in the same period, the Chinese bought 25% less soy from Brazil, compared to the year past.  Despite this, the evaluation of Safras & Mercado analyst, Luiz Fernando Gutierrez, is that Brazil is doing well in exports. “First of all, it is necessary to remember that at the beginning of 2019 the trade war between China and the United States had just started and all Chinese demand was focused on Brazil. Now, Brazil continues as the main exporter to China, but shares demand with the USA”, he says.

“Strong soy exports in the second half of Brazil are not normal. This was a distortion that started in 2018, with the beginning of the trade war between China and the USA. As of this year, the trend is for shipments to begin to return to normal, with strong sales in the first semester and the second seeing volumes drop a lot”, says Gutierrez.

The following graph shows Brazilian soy exports to China and the rest of the world between January 2015 and January 2019:

Sources: Reuters and Canal Rural

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