Economic recovery stutters towards 2024

“Pervasive pessimism” could hold back any meaningful economic recovery through to 2024, according to the latest Global Risks Report from the World Economic Forum (WEF).

The report, which included responses from 1,000 global experts and leaders, found that there was limited hope in an accelerated global recovery towards 2024 (11%), while 89% perceived the short-term outlook to be volatile, fractured, or increasingly catastrophic. Further, 84% of respondents expressed negative feelings about the future in that they were “concerned” or “worried”.

Respondents listed the top long-term risk as to the climate crisis, while heightened cyber risks, uneven global recovery, societal divides, livelihood crises, and mental health deterioration were all concerns for the short term.

The shipping industry is facing increasing pressure to transition to net-zero, in tandem with world economies. Here, the report warns that while an “aggressive and rapid transition” would alleviate long-term environmental consequences, it could have severe short-term impacts, for example putting millions of carbon-intense industry workers out of jobs or triggering societal and geopolitical tensions.

Cyber world

Cyber threats should also be keeping shipping executives up at night.

The report revealed that malware increased by 358% in 2020, while ransomware increased by 435%, with a four-fold rise in the total cryptocurrency value received by ransomware addresses. Further, the emerging “ransomware as a service” model is allowing non-technical criminals to execute attacks, a trend that the WEF believes might intensify with the advent of artificial intelligence-powered malware.

Social and space

Other short-term threats present a socioeconomic risk to shipping. Social cohesion erosion, livelihood crises and mental health deterioration are seen as the most concerning threats to the world over the next two years by respondents. “Societal scarring” compounds the challenges of national policy-making and limits political capital, focus from leaders, and the public support needed to strengthen international co-operation on global challenges, warned the report.

Meanwhile, enforced migration already impacts shipping in busy shipping lanes, such as the English Channel, where migrants make the risky crossing in search of a better future. This risk is expected to increase as economic hardship, the worsening impacts of climate change and political persecution force millions more to leave their homes.

The risks identified by the WEF report are wide-ranging and varied, but almost all have applicability to global shipping as the industry steers its path through the 2020s.

Source: Hellenic Shipping News

To read the full original article please see:

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/economic-recovery-stutters-towards-2024/

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