Agribusiness revenue drops with smaller harvests, weaker exports

Agricultural revenue is expected to total R$953 billion in 2024, 13.8% less than last year, already discounting inflation, reflecting a smaller harvest and weaker exports, with some effect from the severe floods in Rio Grande do Sul. This will be the lowest figure since 2019, according to projections by consultancy MB Agro, a sign of adjustment after an exceptional period for the segment—and in a year when weather conditions are less favorable.

The sector’s weaker performance is one of the reasons for lower growth in the Brazilian economy this year. In terms of GDP, agriculture is expected to fall in 2024, after growing by 15.1% in 2023. The market consensus points to a 1.6% drop in the segment in the national accounts, one of the factors that will lead GDP to expand closer to 2% this year—last year it was 2.9%.

These figures, however, do not show a crisis in agriculture, according to analysts. For Sergio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados, 2024 “is a year of adjustment” after three very favorable years. Between 2021 and 2023, agricultural income was above R$1.1 trillion, in updated values at 2024 prices. The indicator takes into account prices and quantities produced.

According to Mr. Vale, the three key variables for the sector—price, volume and exchange rate—have cooled this year or in part of it, contributing to a weaker result. With the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S., commodity prices have settled, and the harvest in Brazil is suffering the effects of El Niño, which is contributing to a drop in volumes, even more so after the exceptional performance of 2023, he said. In addition, only recently has the exchange rate come under pressure again, added Mr. Vale.

The exchange rate got stronger in the second quarter and rose further from June onwards, but spent practically the entire first quarter below R$5 to the dollar. It wasn’t a bad level for exporters, but a stronger real against the dollar is less favorable for those who sell abroad.

In 2024, agricultural income is expected to be R$642 billion, a drop of 12.9%, already discounting inflation, compared to last year, estimates MB Agro. Livestock income is expected to fall more sharply, by 15.4%, to R$306 billion.

According to the most recent figures from statistics agency IBGE, this year’s grain harvest is expected to be 295.9 million tonnes, 6.2% lower than last year. Mr. Vale noted the impact of soybeans, a product that is expected to see a sharp drop in exports in 2024.

According to MB Agro estimates, foreign sales of the soy complex (grain, meal, and oil) are expected to reach $51.8 billion this year, a 23% drop compared to 2023, with a 6% drop in volumes and 18% in prices.

“It’s the product that ended up showing the greatest loss in exports this year,” said Mr. Vale, noting that “there was a little more difficulty in the soybean crop, but nothing too dramatic. It’s not a significant drop, but because of the importance of the crop, it has a significant effect.”

Total agribusiness exports, including industrially processed products, will also fall this year. According to MB Agro’s forecasts, they should stand at $146.5 billion in 2024, 12% less than last year, with a 10% drop in volumes and a 2% drop in prices. Corn exports will also fall sharply, according to the consultancy. The decline is expected to be 42%, to $7.861 billion, with a 37% drop in quantities and 8% in prices.

The 2024 result, however, is not a trend for agriculture, said Mr. Vale. “This should be seen as a temporary factor,” he said. “The expectation for 2025 is a better harvest, with a higher exchange rate and slightly better prices in general, with the prospect of falling interest rates in the United States.”

The chart below shows Brazil’s soybean export volume between January 2021 and May 2024, according to DataLiner data.

Soybean Export Volume | Jan 2021 – May 2024 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Fernando Honorato, Bradesco’s chief economist, also sees the drop in agriculture in 2024 as a normal phenomenon. According to him, the decline was expected, given the exceptional advance last year, in a scenario in which soybeans in Argentina are recovering this year, after a 2023 in which the harvest of the product in the neighboring country was shaken by a severe drought. “The year 2023 was atypical; our production was very strong,” said Mr. Honorato.

For 2024, the weaker performance of agriculture this year will, of course, affect GDP performance. “Agriculture was essential for the almost 3% expansion last year, but this year it tends to take away from growth,” said Mr. Vale, projecting that the pace of GDP expansion will be slightly lower, between 2% and 2.5%. MB’s June estimate for agriculture in the GDP was a 0.5% drop, but Mr. Vale noted that the fall could be a little more intense.

Bradesco, on the other hand, sees a much stronger drop in GDP for agriculture in 2024. Two weeks ago, the bank revised its projection for the sector in this year’s national accounts to a fall of 5.2% from a drop of 3.5%. This revision incorporates the effects of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul on the sector, but also the expectation of a weaker result for the entire agricultural segment.

Mr. Honorato reiterated that he doesn’t see a crisis in the segment, but rather one-off problems. “There will always be some ‘uncovered’ farmers, who may have leveraged themselves and are now suffering the financial consequences of the drop in production,” he said. As a result, some have fallen into debt and have to deal with the problems caused by the fall in production. The bank expects the sector to recover in 2025, with a 3.9% rise in agricultural GDP. In June, the forecast was for growth of 1.9% next year.

For economists at the Fundação Getulio Vargas’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV), agricultural production is still negative “simply because of the less favorable weather conditions this year and the record harvest in 2023”. For the second quarter, they estimate a 2.2% drop in agricultural GDP compared to the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted.

“There will undoubtedly be a negative impact on the sector due to the disaster in Rio Grande do Sul, but this effect is more moderate due to the advance of harvests in the region until April 2024,” wrote researchers Silvia Matos, Caio Dianin and Bruno Issler in FGV Ibre’s most recent Macro Bulletin. For this year, they predict that GDP will grow by 2%, with agriculture and livestock falling by 2%.

The dominant bet is that next year will see a recovery in farming, but there are still unknowns in the scenario. “For 2025, the picture is still not very clear, as the climate has been much more volatile than in recent years,” said Mr. Vale.

“At first, I estimate a 3% expansion. But that will depend on the harvest, the combination of price and exchange rate,” he said. “With a drop in the U.S. interest rates, commodity prices could have a positive reaction. The exchange rate, in turn, depends on the fiscal situation,” said Mr. Vale. “As it doesn’t look like there will be a definitive solution, the exchange rate may be seeking a new equilibrium point above the R$5 to the dollar it was at previously. This tends to give the sector a sense of recovery next year.”

In GDP, the direct weight of agriculture and livestock is 7.1%, according to figures from the 2023 national accounts. The share of agribusiness is much higher, reflecting the sector’s effect on other segments of the economy. Last year, the share stood at 23.8% of GDP, according to estimates by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics at the School of Agriculture of the University of São Paulo (Esalq-USP), in partnership with the Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Confederation (CNA).

The calculation takes into account agriculture, the input sector, agricultural industry, and agricultural services. Thus, an upturn in agriculture in 2025 will have a positive impact on various sectors, amplifying its effects on the Brazilian economy.

Translation: Marina Della Valle

Source: Valor International

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