Argentina’s Trade Surplus at Risk: January Hits Lowest Level Under Javier Milei

Argentina recorded a trade surplus of $142 million in January—the lowest since Javier Milei took office as president. The sharp decline in the trade balance was primarily driven by a surge in imports, which outpaced the growth in exports.

According to data released Tuesday (Feb. 18) by Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), the country imported $5.748 billion worth of goods in January, a 24.6% increase compared to the same month in 2024. While the year-over-year comparison is based on a low baseline, the latest figure also exceeds the average of recent years by a similar margin.

The spike in imports was volume-driven, as prices declined. The biggest increases were recorded in capital goods (+52.8%), consumer goods (+47.5%), and capital goods components (+29.4%). Meanwhile, intermediate goods—Argentina’s largest import category—rose by 10.6%.

“If January 2024 prices had remained unchanged, the trade balance would have posted a $249 million deficit,” INDEC reported, highlighting an improvement in the country’s terms of trade.

The narrowing trade surplus comes amid a sharp appreciation of the Argentine peso. Combined with the government’s removal of import taxes and regulatory barriers, this has incentivized businesses to replace domestic production with imported goods.

Exports Rise, But Imports Climb Faster

On the export front, Argentina shipped $5.89 billion worth of goods abroad in January, marking a 9.1% year-over-year increase. The strongest growth was seen in fuel exports (+23.7%), industrial manufactures (+16.4%), and agricultural-based manufactures (+11.4%)—the latter accounting for the bulk of the country’s foreign sales.

INDEC reported notable improvements in Argentina’s soybean and energy trade. The rise in soybean complex exports was largely driven by higher shipments of soybean oil, while crude oil sales also saw a significant jump.

Conversely, the automotive trade balance deteriorated. A decline in exports of commercial vehicles, coupled with increased imports of chassis, auto parts, and tires, accounted for much of the sector’s downturn.

In 2024, Brazilian imports of Argentine products were mostly driven by automobiles. The chart below compares maritime container trade between Argentina and Brazil between January 2021 and December 2024. The data comes from Datamar’s DataLiner.

Argentina-Brazil Exports & Imports | Jan 2021 – Dec 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Source: Ámbito

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