Argentine elections: Second round between Massa and Milei

Argentina will have a second presidential round in the elections. With more than 90% of the votes counted, Sergio Massa and Javier Milei will compete for the presidency. According to the National Electoral Directorate, the country’s current Economy Minister has 36% of the votes against 30% of the far-right candidate. Patricia Bullrich is in third place with 23%.

Approximately 25.9 million Argentinians, representing 74% of the electorate, made it to the ballots to choose the successor to Alberto Fernández after an electoral campaign marked by the economic crisis and the emergence of the far-right.

Voter turnout dropped by seven points compared to the 2019 presidential elections.

Argentina, the third-largest economy in Latin America, is grappling with triple-digit inflation and a devalued currency pushing 40% of the population below the poverty line.

The elections in Argentina also include voting for deputies, senators, and Mercosur parliamentarians; the provinces of Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, and Catamarca voted to elect their governors, and the city of Buenos Aires also voted to elect its Chief of Government. Polls closed at six o’clock in Buenos Aires.

The presidential candidates in Argentina have various proposals in different areas. Below are the main proposals of each candidate:

Javier Milei:

• Proposes a “comprehensive reform” to revitalize the Argentine economy.
• Seeks to cut public spending and reduce taxes.
• Advocates for labor flexibility to promote job creation in the private sector.
• Wants to dollarize the economy, although this proposal has been deemed unfeasible by some economists due to the state of the Argentine Central Bank’s reserves.
• Promises to eliminate the Central Bank, gradually eradicate social programs, and cut retirement and pension funds.
• Proposes to shrink the state by reducing the number of ministries and merging some areas while increasing the National Defense and Internal Security budget.
• Supports protecting the child “from conception,” opposing voluntary termination of pregnancy.
• Plans to deregulate the firearms market and prohibit the entry of foreigners with criminal records into the country.

Sergio Massa:

• He aims to cancel 100% of the debt with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
• Proposes implementing a video surveillance system to prevent and combat crime, as well as using satellite systems and drones at borders to combat drug trafficking.
• Aspires to achieve “fiscal balance, trade surplus, reserve accumulation, and inclusive development” in the economy.
• Advocates for economic independence and political sovereignty.
• Prioritizes access to land, decent housing, and strengthening national public enterprises.
• Promotes policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation and an educational revolution.

Argentina Outside of Mercosur: Faced with the risk of Javier Milei winning the elections in Argentina, Brazil wants to expedite the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The Brazilian government would rather close the deal before the second round of Argentine elections scheduled for November 19.

Argentina is Brazil’s third-largest trading partner and, as a member of Mercosur, is participating in negotiations to finalize the agreement with the European Union.

The chart below compares exports and imports between Brazil and Argentina from January 2019 to August 2019. The data is from DataLiner.

Exports and Imports | Brazil-Argentina | Jan 2019 – Aug 2023 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

After winning the primaries in August, Milei stated that Mercosur “should be eliminated” and that he would prioritize relations with the United States and Israel. He is also against Argentina’s entry into BRICS.

The agreement with the European Union is being negotiated by specialists from each one of the interested countries. Some points are still hindering the closure of the deal, including the issue of government procurement, which is a critical point for Brazil, in addition to subsidies for the agricultural sector, which is the most important part for the Europeans.

According to Brazil’s assessment, political involvement beyond negotiations at a technical level is necessary to advance the talks in the next three weeks. This would be a way to avoid the risk of the agreement stalling if Milei is elected.

Sources: G1, BBC, El País and Veja

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