Avian flu outbreaks may help Brazil boost exports

The spread of avian flu cases around the world will be a key factor for Brazilian poultry exports this year, according to a study by Rabobank. Furthermore, as the global economy slows and inflation puts downward pressure on purchasing power, consumers become conditioned to seek cheaper alternatives in establishments that sell at lower prices.

Even with an 18% decrease in shipments to China, Brazil’s 2022 balance should still be of record exports, with growth in sales to other countries, primarily in Asia and the Middle East.

Please see below the chart displaying the monthly volume of poultry meat (hs code 0207) shipped from Brazil between Jan 2019 and Nov 2022. The data is from DataLiner.

Poultry exports | Jan 2019 – Nov 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Despite this, the cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza detected in South America, in countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, and, more recently, Panama, remain a point of attention. The authorities are already reinforcing containment measures to prevent the arrival of the virus in Brazil.

On the other hand, the outbreaks of avian flu, also found in Europe and Asia, may give Brazil more opportunities to expand exports of chicken meat.

Even if, in Rabobank’s perspective, the prices of corn and soy, essential ingredients in the preparation of poultry feed, drop, these values should remain at high levels. Furthermore, feed prices are likely to face a volatile backdrop due to relatively smaller stocks, uncertain market demand, geopolitical changes, and potential supply chain disruptions.

Brazilian exports are expected to grow by 4% to 5% in the first quarter, despite a drop in domestic consumption.

Source: SBA – Canal do Boi

To read the full original article, please access: https://sba1.com/noticias/noticia/24212/Gripe-aviaria-pode-impulsionar-exportacoes-brasileiras

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