Beef Exports: Brazil Set to Break Record in 2025; U.S. Shipments to Drop 11%, USDA Forecasts

Brazil, the world’s leading beef exporter, and Australia, the second-largest, are expected to increase their beef exports in 2025, more than offsetting tighter supply from other major global suppliers, according to the April 2025 outlook report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

“Strong demand in key markets will likely drive both countries to new beef export records in 2025,” the report adds.

The USDA forecasts Brazil’s beef exports to grow by 3% this year to reach 3.75 million tonnes, compared to 3.64 million tonnes in 2024.

“Robust demand from major trading partners – including the United States, Chile, and the Philippines – is expected to boost Brazilian shipments to a record high in 2025,” the report highlights.

Australia’s beef exports are also projected to increase by 3% year-on-year, supported by rising supply and competitive prices in North American and East Asian markets. The USDA expects Australia’s exports to hit 1.96 million tonnes in 2025, up from 1.898 million tonnes in 2024.

India’s buffalo meat exports are forecast to rise 2% this year to 1.56 million tonnes, driven by strong demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

In contrast, according to the USDA, U.S. beef exports are expected to fall by 11% in 2025, reaching 1.218 million tonnes compared to 1.366 million in 2024.

The report notes that U.S. beef shipments to China will be constrained in 2025 due to the expiration of plant export registrations and ongoing retaliatory tariffs. Additionally, Brazil and Australia’s expanded export capacity is likely to intensify competition in key U.S. markets.

Global Beef Trade to Expand

The USDA projects global beef exports to increase by 1% in 2025 to 13.1 million tonnes, with gains from Brazil, India, and Australia compensating for the decline in U.S. exports.

China’s beef imports are expected to rise 2% in 2025—at a slower pace than in recent years—due primarily to weaker domestic consumer demand. U.S. beef imports, however, are forecast to grow by 5%, driven by sustained demand for lean beef. “Strong U.S. import demand will support higher exports from Australia, Brazil, and New Zealand,” the USDA report says.

Global Supply to Remain Stable

The USDA expects global beef production in 2025 to remain virtually flat at 61.6 million tonnes, as increases in Brazil, India, and Australia will offset declines in the U.S. and EU.

Brazil’s beef production is set to slightly exceed last year’s volume, reaching 11.9 million tonnes in 2025.

In Australia, total cattle slaughter is expected to rise by 2%, leading to a 3% increase in beef production to a Record 2.7 million tonnes.

Production in the European Union is projected to decline by 1%, limited by high input costs and regulatory pressure.

Argentina’s total cattle slaughter is forecast to fall by 4%, resulting in a 3% drop in beef output in 2025. “Lower profitability and poor weather conditions have led Argentine ranchers to reduce their herds in recent years,” the USDA explains.

U.S. beef production is expected to reach 12.2 million tonnes in 2025, a 1% drop from last year. “Although average carcass weights in the U.S. are expected to increase, the gain will not offset the reduced number of cattle slaughtered,” the USDA notes.

Source: Portal DBO

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