Brazil Anticipates Additional Demand Following Meat Embargoes on Germany

The confirmation of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) cases in buffaloes in Germany last week triggered a wave of embargoes on beef, pork, and lamb produced in the European country. Part of the demand that German exporters can no longer meet for the Brazilian meat industry may be redirected to Brazil, especially for pork.

The United Kingdom, Mexico, and South Korea are among the countries imposing bans on German meat. Even after the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) declares the outbreak resolved, the full resumption of imports could take up to two years, depending on the country, estimates the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA).

“We don’t celebrate others’ misfortunes, but this situation could inevitably open space for increased external demand for Brazilian pork,” said ABPA President Ricardo Santin to Valor.

In Santin’s view, not all additional demand will necessarily be directed to Brazilian exporters, as buyers may also turn to other suppliers. However, Brazil is a natural option for countries that already source Brazilian pork, such as South Korea and Mexico.

According to Santin, Vietnam has also suspended pork imports from Germany—one of the world’s top 10 pork exporters—and there are indications that Singapore will follow suit. “Chile, another client of Brazil, will likely announce an embargo given the stringent sanitary standards they maintain,” he added.

The United Kingdom, traditionally Germany’s largest pork customer, absorbing about 30% of the European nation’s production, does not currently import Brazilian pork.

The UK’s argument for not importing Brazilian pork has been that Brazil lacks WOAH-recognized FMD-free status without vaccination and uses the feed additive ractopamine in production. However, with Brexit, the UK has been advancing its own regulations, and negotiations with Brazil have gained momentum, according to Santin.

“Now, with Germany’s situation, there may even be a positive influence on negotiations to approve Brazilian meatpacking plants for exports to the UK,” Santin said.

Fernando Iglesias, an analyst at Safras & Mercado consultancy, stated that Japan is another country that could embargo Germany and turn to Brazil. He also believes that restrictions on Germany could increase demand for Brazilian beef.

On a less optimistic note, Scot Consultoria Director Alcides Torres noted that countries banning German beef might turn to Canada or Australia instead, which could limit Brazil’s opportunities to expand its sales

The chart below compares beef and poultry shipments in containers from Brazil to Germany between January 2021 and November 2024. The data comes from Datamar’s DataLiner.

Meat Exports (Beef, Poultry) to Germany | Jan 2021 – Nov 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Amid the wave of embargoes prompted by the FMD outbreak, Germany’s Minister of Agriculture, Cem Özdemir, is using an agricultural and food forum that began yesterday in the country to discuss possible export agreements with other ministers, according to a statement from the German Ministry of Agriculture.

The FMD outbreak was identified in Brandenburg, resulting in the death of three buffaloes and the sanitary culling of the remaining animals on the farm. This marks the first FMD case in Germany since 1988. In addition to Germany’s activated protocols, the European Commission has implemented emergency measures to contain the spread of the disease. FMD is highly contagious among cattle, sheep, goats, and pigs.

By Nayara Figueiredo

Source: Globo Rural

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