Brazil Dairy Market: Imports Rebound in October

The deficit of the dairy market in Brazil deepened in October compared to one month before. According to data released by the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX), the balance recorded last month reached -181 million liters in milk equivalent, a decrease of 37 million compared to September 2023.

Exports saw a new increase in the last month. With a volume of 7.7 million liters in milk equivalent exported, October came to a close with a monthly growth of 26.2% (+1.6 million liters) in exports. Despite this percentage increase, the exported volumes remained low and below the same period in 2022. Brazil exported 44.6% less (-49.9 million liters) from January to October than last year.

On the import side, the imported volume rebounded after a significant decline in September. With a total of 188.5 million liters in milk equivalent imported, the monthly growth was +26.9% (+38.8 million liters of milk). The October volume was up 12.9% year-on-year, whereas in the first ten months of this year, the imported volume was 77% higher than in 2022.

Regarding monthly variation for the most imported products, we can see that whole milk powder, the main dairy category imported by Brazil, increased by +23% month on month. Cheese imports increased by 16% in October compared to September. The category of skimmed milk powder was the most notable highlight, with a monthly variation of +58%.

Yogurts (-43%), whey (-52%), and other dairy products (-13%) were among the other categories, with a smaller share of the imported volume that decreased in the month.

Condensed milk (-2%), cream (-28%), and UHT milk (-11%) were among the exported categories that saw a monthly decrease. The whey group, which had a record export volume in September, fell by -13%. Cheese exports, on the other hand, increased by 82% compared to September.

See below Brazil’s maritime imports of dairy products (hs codes 0400-0405) from Jan 2020 and Sep 2023. The data is from DataLiner.

Brazilian Dairy Imports | Jan 2020 – Sep 2023 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

What can the dairy market in Brazil expect for the coming months?

International dairy prices, including those from Mercosur (Brazil’s leading suppliers), have recovered in recent months, reducing the price competitiveness of imported products relative to domestic ones. Furthermore, milk production in Argentina and Uruguay is beginning to decline, as is typical for these countries, which should result in less product availability for new sales. In this scenario, Brazil’s imports of dairy products are expected to fall in the coming months.

Source: Milk Point

Click here to read the original publication: https://www.milkpoint.com.br/noticias-e-mercado/panorama-mercado/balanca-comercial-de-lacteos-outubro-volta-a-apresentar-aumento-nas-importacoes-235462/

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