According to coffee trader Comexim, Brazil’s coffee output should reach 58.2m 60-kg bags in 2019, against a record production of 63.05m bags seen in 2018. It projects robusta coffee production at a record 19.8m bags this year, compared to 16.35m bags in 2018, while arabica coffee output should fall to 38.4m bags versus 46.7m bags last year, due to alternate years of high and low production. The trader warns last year’s bumper production will bring carry-over stocks of up to 4m bags, which will incur costs to the coffee farmers.

Supporting sources:

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/brazils-2019-coffee-crop-projected-at-582m-bags-comexim

Brazil’s 2019 coffee crop projected at 58.2m bags: Comexim

[SAO PAULO] Brazil’s 2019 coffee crop should reach a volume of 58.2 million 60-kg bags, compared to a revised view of 63.05 million bags produced in 2018, a record, coffee trader Comexim said on Monday.

Comexim, one of the largest exporters of Brazilian coffee, said in a report that robusta coffee production out of Brazil in 2019 should be a record at 19.8 million bags, versus 16.35 million bags in 2018.

Arabica production is expected to fall as this type of coffee has alternate years of high and low production, so in 2019 Comexim sees output at 38.4 million bags versus 46.7 million bags last year.

The trader expects a difficult year for most coffee farmers as the off-year in the production cycle results in higher costs. It projects that the large 2018 crop will result in increasing carry-over stocks that should reach 4 million bags going into the new crop cycle.

Comexim said that despite the record crop last year, sourcing coffee at attractive differentials proved to be harder than expected.

It said that was “felt through the whole chain, or at least by those who had not booked well-discounted differentials way before the beginning of the season, when several players were betting on selling pressure that would result in cheaper offers.”

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