Brazil forecasts record trade surplus in 2021

On July 14, AEB (the Brazilian foreign trade association) released its forecast for the Brazilian trade balance this year. According to the AEB, exports should be around US$ 270.052 billion, an increase of 28.7% compared to the US$ 209.817 billion in 2020, and imports are forecast at US$ 202.051 billion, an increase of 27.1 % compared to the US$158.930 billion in 2020.

This results in a trade surplus of US$ 68.001 billion, 33.6% more than the US$ 50.887 billion calculated last year. If confirmed, the executive president of the AEB, José Augusto de Castro, states that this will be a new record, surpassing the 2017 surplus of US$ 67 billion. Projected at US$ 472.103 billion for 2021, the trade flow will be close to the current record of US$ 482.292 billion that was set in 2011.

According to the AEB, the projected increases for exports and imports will reflect positively in the calculation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2021. The entity’s previous forecast for Brazilian foreign trade, for December 2020, contained lower estimates for international imports and exports.

See below a history of cargo imports and exports by Brazil since January 2018:

Brazilian Imports and Exports | Jan 2018 to May 2021 | WTMT

Graph source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

According to Castro, the sharp rise in commodity prices, especially oil and iron ore, explains the projected growth in exports. The weight of crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans in the Brazilian export basket rose from 35% last year to 41% this year. On the import side, the fact that several products are not currently being manufactured in the country to supply the domestic market, such as parts and components, accounts for the increase in foreign sales to Brazil, said Castro.

Source: Brazil-Arab News Agency

To read the full original article, visit the link:

https://anba.com.br/brasil-deve-ter-superavit-comercial-recorde-em-2021/

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