Brazil Forecasts Surge in Meat Exports in 2024 Driven by Chinese Demand

Brazil, the world’s leading meat exporter, is poised to boost its meat shipments abroad further in 2024, fueled by heightened Chinese demand and ample supplies of beef and chicken, according to a study by Rabobank.

In the pork market, supplies will see a more modest increase, but rising restrictions in competitor countries are expected to drive demand for Brazil’s protein.

The study predicts that Brazilian beef sales to the international market will grow by 2% to 3% next year, spurred by Chinese demand. From January to November of this year, Brazil exported 2.3 million tons, as reported by the Brazilian Association of Meatpackers (Abrafrigo).

According to Rabobank’s calculations, the total volume of Chinese imports of this protein will grow by 6% to 7% compared to 2023, which is equivalent to 200,000 tons.

Rabobank analyst Wagner Yanaguizawa notes, “This should directly favor Brazil, which is already the largest exporter to China.”

The chart below compares containerized exports of beef and pork from Brazil to China between Jan 2019 and Nov 2023, according to data obtained with DataLiner, which is Datamar’s maritime intelligence service.

Beef and Pork Exports to China | Jan 2019 – Nov 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Currently, Brazilians account for 41% of all beef imported by China. In addition to the volume increase, there is also an expectation that Chinese importers will pay a slightly higher price per ton.

Paulo Mustefaga, president of Abrafrigo, predicts that beef shipment volumes will increase by 4% to 5% by the year’s end. However, revenue may fall by about 20%, still affected by the low prices of exported tons.

“For the coming year, I believe there is room for a positive reaction to the price that China pays. Everything depends on their economic recovery, which seems to be improving,” says Mustefaga.

Nevertheless, Rabobank asserts that exporters should not expect prices to return to the levels seen between 2021 and 2022 when the ton surpassed $7,000, but it has the potential to exceed the current $5,000 per ton.

For the president of Abrafrigo, the decrease in beef supply in the United States due to the low cycle of the number of animals available for slaughter makes Brazil more competitive.

There is a possibility that the country will increase its sales to Americans to supplement production in the U.S., as well as a chance for Brazilians to supply markets that Americans may eventually stop serving.

Moreover, prospects for the poultry and pork sectors are also optimistic. The Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) estimates that pork exports are expected to reach 1.3 million tons in 2024, a 6.6% increase from the projected volume for this year, which is 1.22 million tons.

Chicken meat exports are expected to total between 5.2 and 5.3 million tons in 2024, 3.9% more than this year when, according to the Association, they ranged from 5.05 to 5.15 million tons.

According to ABPA, the peak of bird migrations to Brazil has passed, which is expected to curb the emergence of new outbreaks of avian influenza H5N1 in the country. However, the order in the sector is to continue the preventive practices adopted in recent months, ensuring biosecurity and open markets for Brazil worldwide.

“Avian influenza could play an even more active role in the Northern Hemisphere with the arrival of winter, and Brazil may be called upon even more to provide (chicken),” emphasized ABPA President Ricardo Santin.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas

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