Brazil raises record crop forecast despite drought in Rio Grande do Sul

With a stronger-than-expected summer harvest, particularly for soybeans, Brazil’s Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB) has raised its production forecast for the 2024/25 crop season. The agency, which has been predicting record harvests for several months, now expects Brazil to produce 328.3 million tonnes of grains and fiber this season. This figure is 2.6 million tonnes higher than its previous estimate from February.

The forecast released by CONAB on Thursday (13) is 10.3% higher, or 30.6 million tonnes more, than the total harvested in the 2023/24 season. The increase reflects both an expansion in the planted area, which will reach 81.6 million hectares, and an improvement in average productivity, which the state-run company estimates at 4,023 kilograms per hectare.

Soybean production, the most significant crop in the summer harvest, is expected to grow 13.3% compared to the 2023/24 cycle, reaching 167.4 million tonnes. Yields for the oilseed have exceeded initial expectations in key producing states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Minas Gerais.

The harvest initially progressed slowly due to planting delays and higher-than-average rainfall in January, CONAB noted. However, rainfall decreased in February, allowing fieldwork to accelerate. As of this week, 60.9% of the soybean crop had already been harvested, a rate higher than in the same period last season and above the five-year average.

The significant increase in Brazil’s overall harvest projection comes despite worsening conditions in soybean fields in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul, where drought has affected yields. Low moisture levels have constrained soybean productivity, as reported by Valor earlier this week.

In Rio Grande do Sul, in addition to the lack of rainfall, soybean fields have faced heat waves over the past two weeks, exacerbating crop losses. CONAB reduced its soybean harvest estimate for the state from 18.5 million tonnes to 17 million tonnes, a nearly 10% cut between the February and March reports. Estimated productivity has also been lowered by 7.5%, to 2,495 kilograms per hectare. The new forecast is 16.2% lower than the agency’s initial projection.

For the national corn harvest, CONAB now projects 124.9 million tonnes, an 8.3% increase from the 2023/24 cycle.

The soybean harvest dictates the pace of second-crop corn planting, which has now covered 83.1% of the projected area. While this figure is lower than in the same period last season, it remains above the five-year average.

Regarding the second corn crop, CONAB expects a 1.9% increase in planted area, reaching 16.75 million hectares. With favorable weather conditions, production is forecast to reach 95.5 million tonnes, a 5.8% increase from 2023/24.

This strong performance has led to a higher overall estimate for Brazil’s total corn production, which also includes a third crop of 2.4 million tonnes. As a result, total production is expected to reach 122.8 million tonnes, representing a 6.1% increase compared to last season.

CONAB also raised its rice production estimate by 14.3% to 12.1 million tonnes. This increase is attributed to a 6.5% expansion in planted area, which now totals 1.7 million hectares. Additionally, favorable weather conditions have supported the crop, boosting expected average productivity by 7.3% to 7,063 kilograms per hectare.

“Harvest progress is ahead of last season in nearly all major producing states, with the exception of Tocantins, where the pace is slightly slower than in the previous cycle,” CONAB stated in its report.

Another staple crop, beans, is projected to see a modest 1.5% increase in total production for the 2024/25 season, reaching 3.29 million tonnes. This result is primarily influenced by a slight improvement in average productivity, as the total area allocated to bean cultivation remains nearly unchanged, the company said.

For cotton, an expansion in planted area—estimated at around 2 million hectares—is expected to drive a 3.3% increase in output. CONAB anticipates strong average yields, potentially marking the third-highest productivity in the historical series, behind only the last two cycles. Under this scenario, Brazil is expected to produce 3.82 million tonnes of cotton lint, according to the company.

These are the top destinations for Brazil’s cotton exports in 2024, according to DataLiner data.

Cotton Top Destinations | 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

As for winter crops, CONAB has maintained its wheat production estimate at 9.12 million tonnes, based solely on farmers’ planting intentions at this stage.

By Fernanda Pressinott

Source: Valor International

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