Brazil set to break all-time soybean export record in 2023

Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to total 91.5 million tonnes in 2023, a new record up from the 77.2 million projected for 2022.

The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand scheme released by the consultancy Safras & Mercado, which indicates an increase of 19% from one season to the other.

“The recovery of Brazilian production, with a new record production potential, should also lead to a new export record. Brazil should recover the portion lost to the US due to the production break in 2021/22,” informs the company’s analyst, Luiz Fernando Roque.

See below the track record of Brazilian soybean shipments to China from January 2021 to May 2022. Data are from DataLiner.

Brazilian soybean exports to China | Jan 2021 – May 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Increased crushing

The good industrial margins, the strong Brazilian participation in the international market, and possibly higher demand for biodiesel should increase crushing rates. “With the likely super-harvest, ending stocks should have a strong growth, even with the increase in consumption,” adds the analyst.

Safras indicates the crushing of 49.5 million tonnes in 2023 and 47.9 million tonnes in 2022, with an increase of 3% between one season and another. Imports are estimated at 100,000 tonnes for 2023, down 86% over 2022.

Total soybean supply 

Regarding the 2023 harvest, the total supply of soybeans is expected to increase by 18%, reaching 154.53 million tonnes. The total demand is projected by the consultancy at 144.6 million tonnes, growing 13% over the previous year.

Thus, ending stocks are expected to increase by 239%, from 2.93 million to 9.92 million tonnes.

Soy complex products

Safras projects a soybean meal output of 38.05 million tonnes in 2023, up 3%. As a result, exports are expected to increase 3% to 18.7 million tonnes, while domestic consumption is projected at 19.2 million, up 5%. Finally, stocks are expected to rise 7% to 2.4 million tonnes.

Soybean oil production is expected to increase by 3% to 10.05 million tonnes. Brazil should export 1.9 million tonnes, down 10%. Domestic consumption should rise 3% to 8.15 million tonnes.

The biodiesel production from soybeans should increase 10% to 4.5 million tonnes. As a result, the consultancy expects inventories to rise 6% to 333,000 tonnes.

Source: Canal Rural

To read the full original article, please go to: https://www.canalrural.com.br/projeto-soja-brasil/brasil-exportacao-soja-2023-recorde/

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