Brazil soy output at top farm state may drop 15% amid torrential rains

The outlook for soy production in one of Brazil’s biggest farm states is deteriorating quickly after heavy rains disrupted harvesting with about a quarter of fields left to reap from in Rio Grande do Sul.

The situation has dampened farmer sentiment in Brazil’s southernmost state, where soy production was at one point in the 2023/24 season expected to be a record after at least two years of drought slashed output in the region.

Leandro da Silva, who manages a grains unit at farm cooperative Cotrisal in the town of Sarandi, said on Friday the impact of the downpours, which left entire cities under water and flooded grain fields in lower areas, could slash production in Rio Grande do Sul to between 19 million metric tons and 20 million metric tons.

National crop agency Conab has Rio Grande do Sul soy output at 21.89 million tons and state crop agency Emater has it at 22.25 million.

Emater did not change projections in a weekly report released Thursday (May 2), but noted rains were disrupting harvesting of soybeans, which had reached 76% of the planted area. Conab will revise national grains projections on May 14.
Adelson Gasparin, a seasoned broker in the town of Passo Fundo, where many farm cooperatives operate, estimated potential losses of 2.8 million tonnes to Rio Grande do Sul’s soy crop as rains destroy yields.

While up to 90% of the state’s soy was reaped in northern areas of the state, in southern areas there is about 40% left to harvest.

Luiz Roque, an analyst with consultant Safras & Mercado, said it was early to predict the exact size of losses, but he saw four to five million tons of Rio Grande do Sul soy production “at risk”.

The heavy rainfalls, which are slated to continue through the weekend, has killed at least 31 people, left dozens missing and destroyed logistics and power infrastructure.

Source: Reuters

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