Brazil to consolidate leadership in international sugar trade

Brazil is poised to solidify its leadership in the international sugar trade in 2025, with favorable prospects for both domestic and global markets. According to researchers at Cepea, prices are expected to remain high, creating a positive outlook for producers, driven by the interplay between the domestic and international markets.

Domestically, Brazil is anticipated to continue absorbing a significant supply of sugar despite moderate economic growth amid macroeconomic instability. This resilience largely stems from potential price arbitrage between domestic and international markets, which could sustain elevated prices. Moreover, a substantial portion of exports has already been locked in at advantageous levels, reinforcing stability in the sector.

On the international front, demand from emerging markets such as Pakistan and Indonesia is expected to drive the sugar trade, especially as global stock replenishment remains slow over the past two years. Prices on the New York Stock Exchange (ICE Futures) are likely to stay above 18 cents per pound, supporting Brazilian exports. The stock-to-consumption ratio, historically a key driver of price increases, is expected to remain tight, further benefiting Brazil.

Brazil’s competitiveness is also bolstered by the exchange rate, which is likely to stay favorable for exports. Additionally, ongoing trade tensions between global powers like the United States and China could open new opportunities for Brazil—not just in sugar but also in ethanol.

This chart compares sugar exports measured in TEUs month-by-month from January through November starting in 2021. The data comes from DataLiner.

Sugar Exports | Jan-Nov 2021 vs Jan-Nov 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

While 2025 presents challenges, including weather uncertainties and adapting to evolving market demands, Brazil remains the undisputed leader in sugar production and exports, with a promising outlook for the near future.

Source: Voz MT

Original reporting available at: https://www.vozmt.com.br/agronegocio/brasil-deve-consolidar-sua-lideranca-no-comercio-internacional-de-acucar/

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