Brazil to produce 36.2 million tonnes of meat over next ten years

Brazil is forecast to produce 36.2 million tons of meat in 2033, according to a study by the Ministry of Agriculture. This is an increase of 22.4% compared to 2023, or 6.6 million tons more than the current production of 29.6 million tons. The study, titled “Projections of Agribusiness, Brazil 2022/23 to 2032/33”, was released on July 20 and produced by the ministry’s Agricultural Policy Secretariat and the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa).

The study projects that chicken and pork will lead the growth in meat production, with rates of 2.4% and 2.3% per year, respectively. Beef production will grow at a slower rate of 1.2% per year. Chicken meat production is expected to increase by 28.1%, from 15.244 million tons to 19.521 million tons, in the next decade. Pork production is expected to increase by 23.2%, from 5.305 million tons to 6.534 million tons, in the same period. Beef production is expected to increase by 12.4%, from 9.065 million tons to 10.186 million tons, in the next decade.

The study also estimates that meat consumption will grow in the next ten years, with chicken and pork leading the growth, with rates of 2.2% per year each. Beef consumption will grow at a lower rate of 0.4% per year. Chicken meat consumption is expected to reach 12.9 million tons in 2033, an increase of 24.7% from 2023. Pork consumption is expected to reach 5.113 million tons in 2033, an increase of 23.9% from 2023. Beef consumption is expected to reach 6.568 million tons in 2033, an increase of 4.8% from 2023.

The study says that exports will be the most relevant variable for meat growth in the next ten years, with rates of 2.8% for chicken, 2.6% for beef and 2.9% for pork per year. Brazil should export 11.7 million tons of meat in 2033, a 30.8% increase from the expected exports of 9 million tons in 2023.

The chart below shows Brazil’s beef exports from January 2019 to May 2023, measured in tonnes, according to the DataLiner system.

Beef exports | January 2019 – May 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Chicken meat exports are expected to grow by 30.9%, from 4.867 million tons to 6.372 million tons, in the next decade. Brazil will be the world’s largest chicken meat exporter, with a share of 35.5% of global shipments, followed by the United States (25%) and Thailand (8.5%). The main markets for Brazilian chicken meat exports will be Saudi Arabia, sub-Saharan Africa, China, Mexico, Hong Kong, Japan and the European Union.

Beef exports are expected to grow by 29.7%, from 2.883 million tons to 3.740 million tons, in the same period. Brazil will be the world’s second-largest beef exporter, behind India and ahead of Australia and the United States, with a share of about one third of global shipments. The main markets for Brazilian beef exports will be China, the United States and Japan.

Pork exports are expected to grow by 33.5%, from 1.201 million tons to 1.603 million tons, in the next decade. Brazil will be the world’s third-largest pork exporter, behind the European Union and the United States. The main markets for Brazilian pork exports will be China, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and the United States.

Fonte: Notícias Agrícolas

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