Brazil wheat crop seen at record, yet below domestic demand -StoneX

Brazilian farmers will harvest a record wheat crop of 11.3 million tonnes in the 2023/2024 season, compared with 11 million tonnes in the previous one, StoneX said on Monday, April 17.

In its first forecast for the new crop, StoneX said farmers will expand the planted area by 6.1% to 3.48 million hectares (8.599 million acres), citing “optimism” among wheat producers this year based on the expectation of costs remaining stable and demand strong, though wheat prices have declined.

Brazil still does not produce all of the wheat it needs, with domestic demand seen at 13.2 million tonnes this season, stable from last year, according to StoneX data.

To help meet internal demand, Brazilian wheat imports are seen rising by 9.4%, to 6.15 million tonnes, with Argentina remaining a large supplier, StoneX said.

Yields are likely to drop by 3.2% to 3,246 kilograms per hectare, StoneX predicted, noting the difficulty in keeping them above averages seen in the last harvest.

The southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul will remain Brazil’s biggest wheat state based on planted area, followed by neighboring Parana.

More imports

Despite increased crop yields, StoneX sees an increase in imports by Brazil in the 2023/23 market year, owing mostly to a decrease in international prices.

“The North, Northeast, and Southeast regions will benefit from this and go back to receiving larger volumes internationally,” said the report.

Brazilian imports in the new season are estimated at 6.15 million tonnes, up 9.4% compared to the previous cycle.

Check below Brazil’s wheat imports (hs 1001) seen between Jan 2019 – Feb 2023, according to DataLiner.

Wheat imports into Brazil | Jan 2019 – Feb 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

On the other hand, wheat exports should retreat 17.44%, pegged at 2.13 million tonnes.

Ending stocks should grow twofold to 3.9mt.

Source: Money Times

To read the original news report, see: https://www.moneytimes.com.br/stonex-ve-alta-no-plantio-de-trigo-no-brasil-em-23-24-mas-importacoes-crescentes/

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