Brazilian 2021/22 soybean production expected to grow almost 4%

On Thursday, August 26, CONAB (the national supply company) announced the forecast for agriculture in the 2021/2022 grain harvest. According to the figures, soy production should reach 141.26 million tons, an increase of 3.9% compared to the current harvest.

As for productivity, the estimate is 39.91 million/hectare, an increase of 3.6% compared to 2020/2021. “We estimate that production will be 3,539 kg/ha in 2022, an increase of 0.29%. This increase may seem small, but it is very significant considering the high technology that is already used in the field”, stated the manager of agricultural products management at the entity, Fernando Gomes da Motta.

Exports

With the increase in Chinese demand and the high exchange rate in 2022, CONAB is betting on exports of around 87.58 million tons. “Even with an increase in production for the 2021/2022 harvest, it is estimated that the difference between world supply and demand will be small next year, which implies maintaining the world stock/consumption ratio still at low levels”, points out Motta “In addition, low US inventories should support international prices in 2022,” he adds.

Check the chart below for a history of Brazilian soybean exports since 2018. The data are from DataLiner:

Brazilian Soy Exports (HS 1201) | Jan 2018 to Jun 2021 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (To request a DataLiner demo click here)

Thus, the heated Chinese and Brazilian demands, the attractive exchange rate, and the frustration of the next North American harvest should be favorable to the country, allowing Brazil to retain its position as the largest producer of the oilseed in the world, followed by the United States and Argentina.

Source: Canal Rural

To read the full original article, access the link:

https://www.canalrural.com.br/projeto-soja-brasil/producao-brasileira-de-soja-na-safra-2021-22-deve-crescer-39/

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