Brazilian coffee crop in 2020 expected to be greater than previous season

The first Survey of the Brazil’s 2020 Coffee Crop, released this Thursday, January 16, by the National Supply Company (Conab), shows the harvest may reach between 43.2 and 45.98 million bags of arabica type coffee and between 13.95 and 16.04 million bags of conilon type coffee.

Arabica coffee production, propelled by its biennial cycle, is expected to increase by between 26% and 34.1%, compared to the volume produced in the previous season. The biennial cycle is a characteristic of coffee crops which alternate between one year of large flowering, followed by another with less intense flowering. This natural feature allows the coffee plant to recover in the low season in order to produce a higher crop in the subsequent season.

Compared to 2018, the crop is expected to be between 3.2 and 9% lower. Flowering of the current crop occurred in unfavorable climate conditions, with high temperatures and low rainfall.

Conilon production in Brazil, however, has been favored by the climate and has risen from 14.2 million bags in 2018 to 15 million in 2019. Considering both Conilon and Arabica, total expected coffee crops in 2020 could reach between 57.2 million and 62.02 million bags of coffee this year. Total planted area should be 1.89 million hectares, up 4% compared to the last crop.

Minas Gerais is expected to be the state that produces the most coffee, between 30.71 and 32.08 million bags. This is divided into the south of Minas Gerais, where amounts should vary between 17.03 and 17.79 million bags. In the Cerrado Mineiro region production is expected to be between 5.82 and 6.07 million bags, while in the Zona da Mata Mineira region, it should oscillate between 7.21 and 7.53 million bags. In the north of Minas Gerais the number will be between 655,700 and 684,900 bags.

The following chart, prepared by Cecafé (Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil) and based on Conab’s estimate, shows the areas of the states intended for coffee plantation, in hectares:

The forecast for other states has the following breakdown: Espírito Santo, 13.02 to 15.44 million bags; São Paulo, 5.71 to 6.1 million; Bahia, 3.6 to 4.1 million; Rondônia, 2.34 to 2.39 million; Paraná, 880 to 970 thousand bags; Rio de Janeiro, 316 to 350 thousand bags; Goiás, 265.2 to 276 thousand bags and Mato Grosso, 159 to 168.8 thousand bags.

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