Brazilian corn exports grow as soybeans fall

In August, Brazilian corn exports hit a new monthly record of 7.65m tons, up 170% from August 2018. With this, the total exported in the year reached 23m tons, more than double the first eight months of last year (9.19m tons), according to government figures.

The volume exported in August by Brazil, the second global corn exporter behind the United States, surpassed the record 6.32m tons recorded in July, helped by the record harvest and favorable prices and dollar for foreign sales.

With corn shipments developing well, the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec) estimates Brazilian exports in 2019 to be between 35m and 37m tons, a historic mark, said Sérgio Mendes, the director general of the company, on Monday.

“We had a good harvest, there is product availability, favorable exchange rates, rising prices, and space in the ports, because soybeans have the brake not on logistics, but on African swine fever [in China],” said Mendes, noting that shipments of soybeans slowed in 2019, with Chinese slowing down in acquisitions compared to 2018.

With lower soybean shipments, corn exports can flow without major logistical issues, with more port infrastructure available.

“All of this contributes… so that we have the means available to export more corn,” he added.

With a record crop of about 100m tons of corn, Brazil’s exports are expected to far exceed last year’s 24m tons when the country harvested less corn because of climate problems.

“It will be 35m tons (in corn exports), optimists saying 37m, and we will reach soybeans to 72m tons (in the year 2019),” added Mendes.

Soybean Exports

Last season, when the US-China trade war favored Brazil in a year when Brazil’s soybean supply was at a record amount, exports reached about 84m tons of the oilseed.

“Soy is going to be a nice number, it’s impossible to beat 2018 – there was the trade war and it didn’t have swine fever,” he added.

Year-to-date through August, according to data from the Brazilian government, soybean shipments from the largest global exporter reached 57.23m tons, down 11.4% over the same period last year.

In addition to the swine fever, Brazil has less availability of oilseed, following a drought break in some states, and greater competition from Argentina, which had weaker shipments in 2018 because of lower supply.

According to the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), Brazil shipped 4.1m tons of soybeans to China in August, down 40% from the same period last year. Market sources believe the main reasons for the decline are growing competition with Argentina in oilseed exports and African swine flu, which has killed thousands of pigs from China.

The following chart, based on data from DataLiner, shows soybean exports from Brazil to China from January 2015 to July 2019:

Graph Source: DataLiner/Datamar
Article Sources: Reuters and SP Global

Sharing is caring!