Brazilian meat exports will see slight growth in the fourth quarter, says Maersk

Protein exports had a challenging third quarter, according to Maersk, one of the world’s largest integrated container logistics companies. Exports of poultry, beef, and other container-exported meat fell by 7%, 3%, and 3% respectively, although beef volume is expected to react and grow again in the fourth quarter, thanks to rising Chinese demand.

Maersk’s forecast for the fourth quarter beef exports is for a growth close to 5%. “Growth is not so great yet, because of markets like Egypt, which has stopped buying because it is overstocked, Saudi Arabia with low demand, and Russia, which has not bought Brazilian beef for some time. China is the big market where exporters are concentrating their volumes,” explains Matias Concha, Maersk Product Director for the East Coast of South America.

According to him, a factor that also impacts or undermines the potential for growth in export volume is the difficulty of meat packing plants in buying cattle. “The price is high and the supply of cattle with a maximum age of 30 months, a Chinese constraint, also creates difficulties for volume increase and price formulation,” he adds. For the European market, beef exporters are facing difficulties as consumers are increasingly opting for local or closed suppliers such as Poland. Middle East demand is expected to remain consistent and stable, however, Brazilian exporters have lost ground to local producers due to the release of new plants and government incentives, in addition to competition from Russia and Ukraine.

For chicken in the fourth quarter, Maersk reports that there is no forecast growth and may even lead to a slight decline in exports. The domestic market is hot as chicken meat is the main substitute for beef which is currently priced high. “Export, even with the high dollar, will not change significantly, as it will reflect the foreign market. Asia has been consuming Brazilian chicken, but it is not the product they have bought in the largest quantity. The United States also had authorized plants and once again became a competitor for Brazilian chicken in this market. The Middle East market has not reacted and the European consumed less than last year,” explains Matias Concha. The expected major growth in exports will be pork and beef.

“It’s important to keep in mind that the Chinese holiday can also impact shipments by pulling the numbers down, as it will be two weeks in which they decrease deliveries. Another factor analyzed is the domestic consumption at the end of the year of ribs, ham and other noble cuts, which increases significantly,” concludes the Maersk Product Director.

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