Grain consultancy firm, AgRural has lowered its estimate of Brazil’s soybean harvest to 116.9m tons down from 121.4m tons in November due to worse than expected dry conditions in the southern soy belt of the country. In the same vein, broker and analyst INTL FCStone had announced a cut in the South American country’s soy output a week ago. AgRural says the southern state of Paraná will be hit hardest, losing up to 2.5m tons of soybean crop.

The world’s largest soybean exporter, Brazil saw a record harvest of the commodity last year, at 119.3m tons. Moreover, the country shipped a record amount of soybean cargo to China (refer to the graph below for 3-year export trends) after it decided to avert importing US agriculture commodities as part of the trade spat between the two nations. 

Supporting sources:

http://en.mercopress.com/2019/01/10/brazil-s-soybean-crop-forecast-cut-4.5m-tons-hot-spell-in-southern-states

Brazil’s soybean crop forecast cut 4.5m tons: hot spell in southern states

Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean crop forecast was cut to 116.9 million tons on Wednesday from 121.4 million tons late in November, said consultancy AgRural, blaming extreme heat and a dry spell in southern areas for the smaller projection.

Last week, broker and analyst INTL FCStone had announced a similar reduction on its estimates for Brazil soy output. Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, is in the initial stages of the harvest.

AgRural said that weather conditions in recent weeks have basically erased chances of another soy production record in Brazil, which reported its largest output on record last year at 119.3 million tons.

It sold a large part of that to China amid the trade dispute between China and the United States.

The consultancy projected yields to fall by 4% this year when compared with the previous crop, leading overall output to be smaller than last year even with an increase in planted area of 720,000 hectares.

AgRural said southern Paraná state was the hardest-hit by the heat and dry spell. It cut its projection for the state by 2.5 million tons.

https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-soybeans-crops/update-1-brazil-soy-crop-view-cut-to-1169-mln-tonnes-amid-dry-spell-agrural-idUSL1N1Z91F2

UPDATE 1-Brazil soy crop view cut to 116.9 mln tonnes amid dry spell -AgRural

SAO PAULO, Jan 9 (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean crop forecast was cut to 116.9 million tonnes on Wednesday from 121.4 million tonnes late in November, said consultancy AgRural, blaming extreme heat and a dry spell in southern areas for the smaller projection.

Last week, broker and analyst INTL FCStone had announced a similar reduction on its estimates for Brazil soy output. Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, is in the initial stages of the harvest.

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