Brazilian trade balance surplus falls to USD 4bn in September

Brazil’s Ministry of Economy reported on Monday 3 that the Brazilian trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 4 billion in September.

A surplus occurs when exports exceed imports. When the opposite happens, the trade balance enters a deficit.

According to the government in September:

• exports totaled US$ 29 billion; and
• imports, US$ 25 billion.

The balance represents a drop of 9.1% in nominal terms compared with the same month in 2021 when the balance surplus was US$ 4.4 billion. The decrease was 9.3% compared to the daily average, which only takes working days into account.

According to the undersecretary of Intelligence and Foreign Trade Statistics of the Ministry of Economy, Herlon Brandão, the drop in September this year compared to the same month of 2021 is explained by the increase in the price of imported products, primarily fertilizers and fuels.

Year-to-date balance

According to official data from January to September this year, the trade balance accumulated a positive balance of US$ 47.9 billion.

The value represents a drop of 15.1% compared to the same period last year when the surplus totaled US$ 56.4 billion. By the daily average, the decrease was 15.6%.

According to the Ministry of Economy, exports totaled US$ 253.8 billion in the year-to-date balance, and imports totaled US$ 206 billion.

Projections for 2022

The Ministry of Economy has revised its estimate for this year’s trade balance downwards.

In contrast to the US$ 81.5 billion forecast made in June, the new projection shows that the balance will end the year with a positive balance of US$ 55.4 billion.

In March, expectations were even more optimistic – at the time, the government believed in a historical record, with the balance ending the year 2022 with a balance of US$ 111.6 billion. To put it in simple terms, the forecast was reduced to half from March to September.

Undersecretary Herlon Brandão said that the constant above-expected growth in imports and the slowdown in export prices since July contributed to the downward revision of the government’s projection.

The deceleration in export prices is driven by the fall in iron ore, a commodity whose prices are linked to the international market.

He also claimed that the conflict in Ukraine indirectly contributed to the decline in the projection of the balance.

“It has an indirect impact because it impacts the global economy, which lowers external demand and slows down exports. For example, Brazil imports fuel to offset the rise in fuel prices, or there is a shortage of fertilizer, which pushes up fertilizer prices and has an impact on forecasts,” clarified Brandão.

Source: G1

To read the full original article, please access: https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2022/10/03/balanca-comercial-registra-saldo-positivo-de-us-4-bilhoes-em-setembro-diz-governo.ghtml

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