Brazil’s coffee crop forecast to be 14.2% higher than in 2019

According to estimates by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Brazil’s coffee crop this year is expected to total 57 million 60 kg bags.  This represents 14.2% growth compared to 2019. The agency raised the estimate 1% compared to January.

Arabica coffee production is expected to reach 42.3 million bags, a similar forecast compared to the previous month, which would represent an increase of 22.3% in comparison with 2019 due to the year of positive bienniality of the species, which alternates years of high and low production.

Robusta coffee production is expected to reach 14.8 million bags, down 4.1% from the previous year, but above the estimated 14.2 million bags in January.

In Minas Gerais, the main Arabica coffee producing state in Brazil, the variety harvest is expected to advance 26.4% year-on-year, to 31.2 million bags.

In São Paulo, the second largest Arabica producer, production is expected to grow 6.6% compared to 2019, to 4.7 million bags.

In robusta coffee, production is expected to fall 6.2% in Espírito Santo, 5.9% in Minas Gerais and 1.4% in Bahia, with a 4.1% increase estimated in Rondônia, according to the IBGE.

The following chart shows coffee volumes shipped abroad from February 2006 to February 2020:

Chart source: DataLiner

Source of report: Reuters

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