Brazil’s coffee production to fall 17% in 2019/20 season

Brazil’s National Agricultural Supply Company, Conab, has published the second report that discloses the country’s new coffee production estimate for the 2019/20 crop year, at 50.92m 60kg bags, including Arabica and Conilon (Robusta) coffee, down 17.4% year-on-year. The previous report in January projected between 50.48m and 54.48m bags.

Resultado mostra redução de 17,4% em relação a 2018, mas recuo ocorreu em razão da bienalidade negativa, fenômeno natural do #café. Confira os números completos da #safra, divulgados pela @Conab_Oficial? https://t.co/tLMsorXKFM #inteligenciaagropecuaria #levantamentodesafra pic.twitter.com/PuOaY1PGuJ

— Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento – Conab (@Conab_Oficial) May 16, 2019

Of the total volume of coffee harvested in Brazil, Arabica coffee will account for 72% of the production, according to Conab. The Arabica coffee yield should reach 36.98m bags in the period, a 22.1% year-on-year reduction. The January estimate for this type of coffee stood at 36.12m to 38.16m bags.

The Conilon (or Robusta) coffee yield is forecast to fall by 1.7% to 13.92m bags in the 2019/20 season, year-on-year. This is a fall from January’s estimate of between 14.36m and 16.33m bags.

Brazil’s coffee planted area in 2019/20 will remain pretty similar to the previous season, at 2.16m hectares. Of the total acreage, 85.2% or 1.84m hectares are already in the production stage.

Conab attributes the reduction in coffee production to biennial bearing, reducing production in the current cycle.

In October, Brazil exported 3.4m bags of green, soluble, and roasted coffee altogether. The volume represents a decrease of 13.1% compared to October year-on-year, according to data are from Cecafé (Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council).

Exportação de café solúvel totaliza 3,3 milhões de sacas no acumulado de 2019. Com o desempenho, #Abics crê que o segmento deverá bater recorde e embarcar 4 mi de sacas no ano. Saiba mais: https://t.co/1enzq9JhfX.@cecafebrazil #Brasil #exportação #café #cafésolúvel pic.twitter.com/RyiDxQy1wK

— Abics (@abicsoficial) November 18, 2019

The following DataLiner graph shows Brazil’s month-by-month coffee exports analysis from January 2006 to December 2019:

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