Brazil’s CONAB predicts grain harvest record

The results of the fifth survey of the 2019/20 harvest prepared by Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) were released on Tuesday, February 11th. Soybean and corn crops are expected to drive grain production to another historical record, estimated at 251.1 million tons, 3.8% higher than the previous harvest, equivalent to an additional 9.1 million tons.

An increase of 2.5% is expected in the overall planted area, reaching around 64.8 million hectares, an additional 1.6 million ha. The forecast predicts good weather conditions favoring crop recovery, after last season’s drought. First crops account for 45.6 thousand hectares, while the second, third and winter crops account for 19.3 thousand hectares.

Soy crops, which occupy a 2.6% larger area, have seen good harvesting productivity, in keeping with recent seasons’ observed growth. Estimated production stands at 123.2 million tons, which represents a new record and is partly a result of improved rainfall distribution.

Production of first, second and third crop maize should reach something close to 100 million tons, a 0.4% increase. The first corn crop area estimate is 4.25 million hectares, 3.4% higher than the 2018/19 crop.

Cotton is expected to see a 5.3% increase in planted area, reaching around 1.7 million hectares. Production is also expected to set a new record, reaching 2.82 million tons of plume. The cotton seeds are expected to reach 4.23 million tons, 1.6% growth compared to the previous harvest.

Rice production also benefited from climate, including in the Rio Grande do Sul crops, where more than 80% of national consumption occurs. The crop increased 0.6% to a production of 10.51 million tons. The first crop of beans fell 0.1% in planted area, down to 921.4 thousand hectares, but rose 9.4% in production on the back of productivity gains. Production is expected to exceed 1 million tons. The second crop, which is just beginning to be cultivated, should occupy the same area as the previous crop of 1.4 million hectares.

Below is the total production in Brazil (in thousand tons):

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