Brazil’s Corn Prices Stable Amid Mixed Harvest Reports

Corn prices in Brazil remained stable, with the average price in Rio Grande do Sul closing the week at R$57.64 per sack, while key local markets held steady at R$54.00. Prices across other regions of the country ranged from R$38.00 to R$58.00 per sack, reflecting regional variations.

According to the Central International Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (CEEMA), the harvest of this year’s second crop in Brazil’s Center-South reached 91% of the area by July 25, a significant increase compared to 55% at the same time last year. This is the highest percentage recorded since AgRural began tracking in 2013.

In Paraná, the Department of Rural Economy (Deral) reported that 85% of the second-crop corn fields had been harvested by the end of the week, except for the Southwest and West regions, where yields were strong. In Mato Grosso do Sul, Aprosoja/MS noted that the harvest reached 65.9% of the area, significantly higher than the previous year. However, adverse weather conditions led the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of Mato Grosso do Sul (Famasul) to lower its final production estimates by 19.1%, projecting 9.3 million tons yielded, 34.7% less than the previous crop.

Average productivity in Mato Grosso do Sul is expected to be 69.8 sacks per hectare, marking a 30.7% decline. These figures may still be adjusted, as the area sampling will only be completed on September 13. Meanwhile, the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) reported that in the first 20 working days of July, Brazil’s corn exports totaled 2.76 million tons, with daily shipments down 31.5% compared to the same period in 2023.

Despite this export drop, an improvement is anticipated in the coming months. Datagro consultancy predicts a reduction in the area planted with summer corn in Brazil, with the upcoming crop expected to cover 3.89 million hectares, down from 4.05 million hectares in 2023/24. Factoring in the potential impact of La Niña and standard technological practices, the expected production is 23.3 million tons, 1% less than the previous year’s yield.

The initial trend for the 2025 second crop also suggests a reduction in planted area, with 16.8 million hectares projected, 2% less than the previous planting. If the weather remains favorable, the second crop’s production is forecasted at 93.6 million tons, nearly identical to this year’s yield. Overall, Brazil’s total area for the 2024/25 crops is expected to be 20.7 million hectares, 2% less than the previous year’s 21.3 million hectares, while the total potential production is projected to reach 116.9 million tons, maintaining stability compared to the last general crop, according to Datagro.

Source: Agrolink 

Original news report: Exportações de milho brasileiro caem 31,5% em julho (agrolink.com.br)

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