Brazil’s record soybean harvest boosts export forecasts for 2023

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) reported that the record soybean harvest in Brazil, already completed in 2023, exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision in export forecasts for soybean grain, meal, and oil this year.

Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of soy, achieved a record harvest of 156 million tonnes, surpassing the May forecast of 155 million tonnes. Additionally, the projection for soybean grain exports in 2023 was revised to 97 million tonnes, compared to the previous estimate of 95.7 million tonnes. These figures indicate a 23.2% increase in annual exports, underscoring the robustness of international demand.

Abiove attributed the substantial crop yields to firm productivity across most of the country and an expansion in acreage. National soybean harvest witnessed a 20% rise compared to 2022, when drought adversely affected crops in the South.

See below the soy volume exported by Brazil every month from January 2019 to April 2023. The data is from the market intelligence service DataLiner.

Soy exports from Brazil | Jan 2019 – Apr 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The processing of soybeans in Brazil for 2023 was projected to reach a record 53.2 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 53 million tonnes and a 4.5% increase from 2022. This rise is attributed to higher domestic demand for soybean oil, primarily for biodiesel production, and increased soymeal exports. Brazil has capitalized on Argentina’s reduced crop to bolster its own soybean meal exports.

The forecast for soybean meal production in Brazil remained stable at 40.7 million tons for 2023, representing a 1.5 million-ton annual increase. Soybean meal exports from Brazil are expected to reach 21.9 million tons in 2023, up from the previous estimate of 21.4 million tons and a rise of 1.54 million tons compared to 2022. This positions Brazil to surpass Argentina as the largest global exporter of soybean meal in 2022/23, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Abiove also raised the projection for soybean oil exports from Brazil in 2023 to 2.3 million tons, an increase of 150 thousand tons from the previous forecast but still below the 2.6 million tons exported last year.

Domestic soybean meal consumption was estimated at 18.1 million tonnes, around 500,000 tonnes less than the previous year (2022).

Revenue

Despite a slight reduction in the export price forecast for the soy complex (grain, meal, and oil), Abiove anticipates record export revenues of $65.5 billion, surpassing the $60.95 billion achieved in 2022.

Soy remains Brazil’s primary export product.

Sources: Forbes

To read the original news report, please visit: https://forbes.com.br/forbesagro/2023/06/abiove-eleva-safra-de-soja-do-brasil-e-de-exportacoes-de-grao-farelo-e-oleo/

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