Brazil’s record wheat harvest projection proven right

With a now-complete harvest, Brazil’s projection to close the 2021/22 season with the highest wheat crop has been proven right. The 9.5 million tonnes harvested, 24% greater than the previous season, will be able to meet more than 70% of the national demand, which will be between 12 million and 14 million tonnes.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the crops had surprising productivity, which ensured a harvest 36.1% greater than the last cycle. As a result, the volume reached 4.97 million tonnes.

The performance placed the state in the leadership of Brazilian wheat production, a position traditionally occupied by Paraná. The weather did not help Paraná producers, and the harvest was far from historical peaks.

Rio Grande do Sul state harvested 3.38 million tonnes, according to its Department of Rural Economy (Deral), a branch of the Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply, a volume well below the initial expectation, which was more than 4.2 million tonnes. Despite this, the volume was 5% higher than in 2020/21.

In the northern and southern regions of Paraná, the problem was the lack of rain, especially in August. In other areas of the state, frost, and rain reduced crop productivity.

In the state of Santa Catarina, the harvest increased by 31.7% compared to the previous season, totaling 445.3 thousand tonnes. São Paulo also had a record harvest of 500 thousand tonnes, almost double the volume of 2020/21 and well above the most optimistic projections, which were for a production of 400 thousand tonnes.

See below the track record of Brazilian wheat exports (hs 1001) from Jan 2019 to Nov 2022. The data is from DataLiner.

Brazilian exports of wheat | Jan 2019 – Nov 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

According to Embrapa Trigo, since 2015, cereal production has grown by around 10% per year in Brazil. If this pace is kept by 2030, Brazil’s domestic wheat harvest will reach 20 million tonnes. “With stable consumption in the domestic market, Brazil will be able to export the surplus, moving from being a major importer to entering the list of exporters,” said the state-owned company in a report.

See now the track record of the volume of wheat Brazil imported in the same period, according to the DataLiner market intelligence service.

Brazilian imports of wheat | Jan 2019 – Nov 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Between January and November 2022, Brazil exported 2.5 million tonnes of wheat, more than twice as much as last year. However, imports fell by 9.7% due to the growth in local supply and increased international prices.

Source: Valor Econômico

To read the full original article, please visit: https://valor.globo.com/agronegocios/noticia/2022/12/30/brasil-confirma-projecao-e-tem-safra-de-trigo-recorde.ghtml

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