Brazil’s soybean exports may fall by up to 24% if US-China trade war ends

Brazilian agricultural consultancy ARC Mercosul estimates Brazil’s soybean exports may fall by as much as 24% year-on-year to only 64m tons in the 2018/19 season if the China US trade war ends with reversal of tariff barriers on the US-China bilateral trade incentive packages. The Asian nation had already pledged to buy 20m tons of US soybean in February, according to DatamarNews.

BREAKING: In Oval Office meeting today, the Chinese committed to buy an additional 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans. Hats off to @POTUS for bringing China to the table. Strategy is working. Show of good faith by the Chinese. Also indications of more good news to come.

— Sec. Sonny Perdue (@SecretarySonny) February 22, 2019

Brazil’s soybean exports jumped last year as both countries, China and the US, started lashing out import tariffs to each other. Brazil’s soybean export hit a record 83.6m tons in 2018, according to DatamarNews. Of the total amount of soy shipped from Brazil, 68.8m tons were sent to mainland China, up 15m tons from 2017.

The following DataLiner graph shows Brazil’s soybean export trend to China versus the rest of the world:

DatamarNews reported Brazil’s agriculture consultancy firm, Safras & Mercado, announced an estimated 17% drop in Brazil’s soybean exports this year, compared to 2018. The organ expects the country’s soybean shipments will reach a total of a 70m tons this year.

SAFRAS indica exportação de 70 milhões de toneladas de soja em 2019 https://t.co/vm3AyZjiZA

— SAFRAS & Mercado (@SAFRASMERCADO) March 19, 2019

“An important factor impacting Brazilian soybean exports is the possible resolution of the trade war between the US, the world’s top soybeans producer, and China,”  Brazilian crop agency Conab said in its March report.

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