Brazil’s Wheat Acreage Declines in 2024 Amid Import Hikes

After four consecutive years of expansion, Brazilian wheat producers reduced planted acreage in 2024. Declining prices throughout 2023 and on-field losses dampened profitability, curbing growers’ appetite for increasing cultivation. On a positive note, yields partially rebounded this year, keeping supply levels consistent with 2023. Demand remained robust, necessitating increased imports.

According to data from Conab, the 2024 wheat crop covered 3.061 million hectares, a decrease of 11.9% from the previous season. Productivity, however, climbed by 13% to an estimated 2,634 kg/ha. As a result, total production for the 2024 crop was projected at 8.064 million tonnes, a slight decline of 0.4% compared to 2023. Price data from Cepea indicated minor declines during the first quarter of 2024.

Here is a history of Brazilian container imports. The data is from DataLiner:

Brazilian Wheat Imports | Jan 2021 – Nov 2024| TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

In the second quarter, prices found support from global market gains, a stronger U.S. dollar, and concerns over wheat cultivation in southern Brazil. Rio Grande do Sul, for instance, faced a catastrophic climate event, raising fears of reduced planting or outright planting impossibilities in parts of the state. Seasonal factors also bolstered prices during this period. July recorded the highest average prices of the year, driven by tighter wheat availability and strong demand.

However, in the following months, rising import volumes began exerting downward pressure on prices, a trend that persisted through the year’s end. From late in the third quarter, the harvest’s progress and favorable milling stock levels further intensified the pressure on domestic prices.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas

Original reporting available at: https://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/noticias/trigo/391489-trigo-retrospectiva-cepea-com-menor-producao-importacao-cresce-em-2024.html

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