Brazil’s wheat output forecast raised to 10 million tonnes, StoneX says

Brazil is forecast to produce 10 million tonnes of wheat this season, up from a previous estimate of 9.67 million, agribusiness consultancy StoneX said on Wednesday, October 5, as farmers in the South American country continued their harvest.

“StoneX’s fourth Brazil wheat crop estimate included significant revisions to yields in the south of the country, which raised national production to more than 10 million tons,” StoneX said.

In September, the analysis company said that the incidence of rains and the absence of frosts in critical periods was the main reason crops had good development.

However, the wheater throughout October may still redefine yield productivity in the southernmost regions of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul.

“Still, the wet weather is likely only to impact wheat quality and not the final yield volume.”

With increased supply, Brazil’s forecast for wheat exports in 22/23 increased to 2.8 million tons, up from 2.5 million in the previous estimates.

This volume would still fall short of the previous harvest when 3 million tonnes were harvested.

“Exports should be lower this season… Although Rio Grande do Sul is moving towards production of 5 million t, a tight export window can make it difficult to have such a large volume shipped,” he commented.

See below the track record of the volume of Brazilian wheat (HS code 1001) exported from January to July 2021 compared to the equal period in 2022. The data is from DataLiner.

Wheat exports from Brazil | Jan – Jul | 2021 vs 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The country’s wheat imports were estimated at 6.2 million tonnes, stable compared to the previous month’s forecast, with a slight increase predicted year on year.

“Imports should grow a little this year, with prices in Argentina being more attractive for the first half of 2023. However, the greater supply shipped in the country should be consumed by more active mills, accounting for 12.2 million tonnes of the harvest,” StoneX said.

Source: Money Times

To read the full original article, please go to: https://www.moneytimes.com.br/stonex-eleva-previsao-de-safra-de-trigo-para-recorde-de-10-mi-t-aumenta-exportacao/

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