China’s exports and imports return to growth in April as demand improves

China’s exports rebounded in April following a brief decline in March, underscoring its pivotal role in bolstering the world’s second-largest economy amid ongoing efforts to stimulate domestic demand.

According to the General Administration of Customs, overseas shipments rose by 1.5% in April compared to the same period last year, reversing a 7.5% dip in March. This surpassed the 1.0% growth forecast by economists surveyed by “The Wall Street Journal.”

“Exports have been a beacon of hope for China’s economy this year,” remarked Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

The rebound in manufacturing and exports has propelled China’s economy beyond market expectations, with a 5.3% expansion in the first quarter compared to the previous year. However, lingering concerns persist regarding the prolonged housing crisis, which has curbed consumption and investment.

The latest trade figures indicate tentative signs of recovery in domestic demand. Imports surged by 8.4% year-on-year, outpacing March’s 1.9% decline and surpassing economists’ expectations of a 4.5% increase, according to a WSJ survey.

While the sustained growth in exports signals optimism, it also raises apprehensions overseas about an influx of Chinese goods into global markets. Both U.S. and European Union officials have hinted at potential trade barriers for Chinese electric vehicles and renewable energy equipment.

Excess capacity has bolstered the recent surge in exports by exerting downward pressure on export prices, noted Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics. However, given manufacturers’ already narrow profit margins, their ability to further reduce prices is waning, potentially signaling the bottoming out of export prices.

“We anticipate a further decline in exports in the coming months,” concluded Huang.

Source: Valor Econômico

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