China’s Exports Surge Ahead of U.S. Tariffs as Trade War Escalates

The world’s two largest economies are heading toward a prolonged economic decoupling set to unfold through 2025 and beyond, following a month in which China’s exports surged and its total trade surplus reached nearly $103 billion.

This increasingly imbalanced trade flow is one of the issues U.S. President Donald Trump says he is trying to fix with sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods. These measures have sparked escalating retaliation from Beijing and have now evolved into a full-scale trade war.

While Trump has temporarily exempted many popular consumer electronics from his 125% tariffs on Chinese products, Beijing called the move a “small step” and urged the U.S. to take a “big step” to ease trade tensions. The standoff is already reshaping global trade. For example, in March, China’s shipments to Southeast Asia neared historic highs.

A rush to ship goods ahead of Trump’s steep April tariff hikes likely contributed to what analysts consider the final trade boom with the U.S. In March, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. accounted for more than 25% of its total.

Total exports in March, measured in U.S. dollars, rose 12.4% year-on-year — a sharp reversal from a 3% drop in February, according to China’s customs authority.

The U.S. and China have spent weeks locked in an intensifying trade war, with both sides adding tariffs and trade barriers. Each is waiting for the other to make the first move: Trump has said he’s “waiting” for a call from Beijing, while Chinese officials insist they’re open to talks but won’t be bullied into negotiation.

“To break the deadlock, some behind-the-scenes contact may be necessary,” said Song Hong, deputy director at the Institute of Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “It is impossible for China to yield to U.S. intimidation like some smaller trade partners. Irrational practices like additional tariffs must be reduced or removed to return to rational dialogue.”

The consequences of this economic rift are expected to materialize starting in April, with few signs that either side is ready to back down. Last week, China’s Ministry of Commerce called Trump’s extreme tariffs “a joke” given their lack of economic logic.

Although the prospects for a thaw appear remote, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” that there have been “soft overtures” from both sides via intermediaries. “We all hope President Trump and President Xi will resolve this,” he said.

Lutnick’s remarks quickly trended on Weibo, China’s social media platform similar to X, drawing over 40 million views. While some users suggested the U.S. is looking for an exit, others mocked Trump’s unpredictable approach to China.

Still, businesses are moving quickly to avoid risk.

In March, many likely accelerated orders to prepare for the tariff hikes. Data also suggest companies are rerouting shipments to Southeast Asia. Chinese exports to the region hit their second-highest level ever.

Check below the main products imported from China by Brazil in 2025. The data is from DataLiner:

Main products imported from China | 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping is making his first international trip of the year, visiting Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam. In March, exports to Vietnam and Thailand hit record highs, while shipments to the U.S. topped $40 billion — a 9% increase year-on-year after falling in February.

Source: Valor Econômico

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