Coffee prices soar while orange juice tumbles in global markets

Two commodities for which Brazil is the world’s leading supplier saw contrasting performances in international markets in February. Coffee surged to new record highs in New York due to signs of tightening supply, partly driven by weather-related impacts on the Brazilian harvest. Meanwhile, frozen concentrated orange juice prices plummeted as optimism grew over Brazil’s citrus production outlook.

With ongoing uncertainty about coffee supply—and no signs of a decline in global demand—second-position coffee futures closed February at an average of $3.9438 per pound, marking an 18.78% monthly increase, according to Valor Data calculations. Over the past 12 months, coffee prices have surged 112.18%.

According to Haroldo Bonfá, director at Pharos Consultoria, beyond the supply-demand imbalance, coffee prices were also affected by heat waves that hit some of Brazil’s key growing regions, impacting the 2025/26 crop. Slower exports, which highlight the anticipated supply deficit for this year, also contributed to the bullish market. “For the past two months, Brazil has only been shipping previously contracted coffee. The volume available for export is very small, and until the new crop arrives in June, supply will remain tight,” he said.

If this trend continues, further record highs in New York cannot be ruled out, Mr. Bonfá added. On February 13, coffee futures hit $4.3890 per pound for the first time.

The tightening coffee supply is also driving up domestic prices, making it one of the key drivers of food inflation in Brazil—an issue of concern for the government. At least in the short term, this trend is expected to persist, with the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC) forecasting price hikes of up to 30% over the next two months.

The chart below reveals the trend of coffee bean exports from Brazil between January 2021 and January 2024. This information was derived from DataLiner.

Coffee Bean Exports | Jan 2021 – Jan 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Orange juice prices slump on improved crop outlook

Frozen concentrated orange juice, on the other hand, saw a sharp decline, dropping 24.25% in New York to an average of $3.6091 per pound for second-position contracts. The price drop reflects a more optimistic outlook for Brazil’s 2025/26 orange crop, following initial concerns over weather conditions.

According to Andres Padilla, an analyst at Rabobank, Brazilian orchards are currently laden with fruit, having benefited from favorable rainfall in October. “Additionally, growers are enjoying strong profit margins, leading to increased investment in fertilizers and crop protection. Brazil could see a strong 2025/26 harvest, and I wouldn’t be surprised if production reaches 290 million boxes,” he said.

In its latest forecast for the 2024/25 season, the Fund for Citrus Protection (Fundecitrus) projected that production in the São Paulo and Triângulo-Sudoeste Mineiro citrus belt would reach 228.52 million boxes. The outlook for the new crop cycle is expected to be released in May.

Wheat prices rise on global weather concerns

In Chicago, wheat was the standout performer in February, climbing 5.92% to an average of $5.9104 per bushel. Adverse weather conditions in key producing regions, including the United States, fueled the rally.

According to Élcio Bento, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, there was significant concern over the winter wheat crop planted late last year in the U.S., as the thin layer of snow was insufficient to protect fields from expected cold waves. “Fearing crop losses in the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia, prices began to rebound, reaching a peak of $6.09 per bushel,” he said.

A sharper rise in wheat prices could also contribute to inflation in Brazil, as the country is not self-sufficient in wheat production and relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand.

Source: Valor International

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