Coffee producing countries consume 30.5% and importers 69.5% of world production

World coffee production in coffee year 2018-2019 amounted to 168.72m 60kg bags, of which 102.68m bags are arabica coffee, equivalent to approximately 60%, and 66.04m bags are robusta coffee, equivalent to approximately 40%. If a comparison is made with the previous coffee year, whose harvest was 162.85m bags of coffee, being 100.88m of arabica coffee and 61.90m of robusta coffee, it appears that these volumes represent increments, respectively, of 3.7% of total production, 1.8% of arabica coffee volume and 6.7% of robusta coffee volume.

Specifically in relation to robusta coffee, it has been observed that in coffee year 2018-2019 the volume produced in the world increased by 4.14m bags compared to the 2017-2018 volume. In this same context, it can be seen that the Brazilian production of robusta coffee had a similar volume increase, because in 2017 the harvest was 10.72m bags and in 2018 it was 14.17m bags, which generated a physical increase of 3.45m bags. This increase in Brazilian robusta coffee production indicates a recovery in the harvest of this type after the severe drought that occurred in previous years in Espírito Santo, Brazil’s largest producer of coffee, which negatively affected production.

Thus, given the significant participation of Brazil in world coffee production, which accounts for approximately 1/3 of world production, it can be inferred that this increase in the Brazilian crop has contributed to the increase in world robusta coffee production. Extrapolating this same analysis for the Brazilian robusta coffee crop in 2019, it is also possible to deduce that the increase in robusta coffee production should not have such expressive growth in this crop, which is estimated at a volume equivalent to 14.52m bags, that is, growth of only 2.5% compared to 2018.

The data and statistics on world and Brazilian coffee growing that allowed these analyzes to be made were extracted from the Coffee Market Report September 2019, from the International Coffee Organization – ICO, and from the Brazilian Coffee Monitoring – Third Survey – September 2019, from National Supply Company (Conab). These documents are available in full at the Coffee Observatory of the Café Research Consortium, coordinated by Embrapa Café.

According to the mentioned Coffee Market Report September 2019, supply growth in coffee year 2018-2019 was reflected in the increase in exports, since in the first eleven months of this coffee year the volume sold abroad was 9.2% higher than the coffee year 2017-2018, with 120.28m bags shipped. From October 2018 to August 2019 Arabica exports exceeded the same period of 2017-2018 by 11.3%. Robusta shipments increased by 5.6% to 42.84m bags in the first eleven months of coffee year 2018/19. For the purposes of this analysis, the ICO coffee year covering the period from October to September is being considered.

Coffee

Coffee Intermediaries:

Graphs source: Dataliner/Datamar

In the same context of world coffee production performance, in relation to consumption alone, the Organization estimates that global coffee consumption will increase by 2.1% in this coffee year of 2018-2019, as it should reach a physical volume equivalent to 164.82m 60kg bags. Stratifying this global volume of consumption, the ICO points out that consumption in importing countries increased 2.4%, reaching 114.51m bags, which corresponds to 69.5% of consumption on the planet. And, in relation to exporting countries (coffee producers), consumption increased by 1.3% to 50.31m bags, representing 30.5% of world consumption.

Source: Embrapa Café

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