Coffee Production in Brazil Expected to Reach 66 Million Bags in 2024/25, USDA Forecasts

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced today that Brazil’s coffee harvest for the 2024/25 cycle is expected to reach 66.4 million bags, with the harvest completed in mid-August. This forecast represents an increase of 100,000 bags compared to the previous estimate released in June.

The forecast for arabica coffee has been revised upward, with an increase of 500,000 bags, totaling 45.4 million bags, while robusta production was reduced by 400,000 bags, settling at 21 million bags.

Brazil’s coffee production is expected to remain in line with the volume recorded in the 2023/24 cycle. However, the USDA projects a decrease of 2.6 million bags in exports, which is expected to reach 40.5 million bags, reflecting a decline in the stocks accumulated from the previous year.

Colombia

Arabica coffee production in Colombia has been revised to 12.9 million bags, an increase of 100,000 bags compared to the previous forecast. Exports also increased by 200,000 bags, reaching 10.9 million bags, primarily serving markets in the United States and the European Union.

Vietnam

In Vietnam, total production is expected to reach 30.1 million bags, driven by robusta production, which is forecast to hit 29 million bags in the 2024/25 cycle. The previous forecast from July was 27.85 million bags.

With the increase in production, the USDA raised its estimate for Vietnamese exports by 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million bags.

Global Harvest

The global coffee harvest for 2024/25 is expected to reach 174.9 million bags, an increase of nearly 7 million bags compared to the previous cycle, driven by the recovery in supply from Vietnam and Indonesia.

Global exports are expected to reach 144.8 million bags, surpassing the 143.4 million bags recorded in 2023/24. This increase is primarily supported by growth in production in Vietnam and Indonesia, which offset the reduction in Brazilian exports.

Here’s a chart that shows the container trade of Brazilian coffee bean shipments between January 2021 and October 2021. This powerful information was derived from DataLiner. Readers may request an access demo through the link below.

Coffee Bean Exports | Jan 2021 – Oct 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Global coffee consumption is expected to grow by 5.1 million bags, reaching 168.1 million bags, driven by higher demand in the European Union, the United States, and China. As a result, global ending stocks are expected to decline by 1.5 million bags to 20.9 million bags.

Source: Globo Rural

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