Conab slashes harvest projections for Brazil’s main crops

Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop was estimated on Tuesday (March 12) at 146.86 million tonnes, a 1.7% decline from the previous month’s forecast, as the effects of bad weather continue to manifest in the monthly survey figures by the National Supply Company (Conab).

“Since the start of this crop season until mid-December, climatic conditions have grown unfavorable in the country’s top-producing regions. These weather instabilities have caused significant losses in crop productivity, particularly in soybeans,” Conab wrote in a release.

Conab reduced the projected yield by 1.9% compared to the February survey, to 3,251 kg/ha.

As a result, the output in the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans is expected to be 5% lower than that of the previous crop, which set a record.

The current harvest will still be the second-largest in the country’s history, following a 2.5% increase in acreage compared to the previous cycle, reaching 45.18 million hectares.

However, estimates for Brazilian soybean exports are also falling further from the initial projections.

Now, Conab projects exports of 92.3 million tonnes, a decrease of over 9% compared to last year’s export volume. Until February, the state-owned company forecasted shipments of 94.16 million tonnes.

The company calculated domestic processing at 52.5 million tonnes, still slightly higher than the previous cycle. And, amidst the crop shortfall, it raised estimates for soybean imports by Brazil from 200,000 tonnes to 800,000 tonnes, the highest volume since the 2020/21 season.

CORN AND OTHERS

The state-owned company also revised downward Brazil 2023/24’s corn harvest projection to 112.75 million tonnes, with expected cuts in both the first and second harvests.

This should mean a 14.5% decrease compared to last season.

The second crop, the largest for corn in Brazil, is now estimated at 87.3 million tonnes, versus 102.4 million tonnes in the previous season.

Despite the reduction in the estimate, Conab maintained the corn export forecast at 32 million tonnes, from a record of 54.6 million tonnes the previous year.

The cotton crop forecast was raised to a record 3.56 million tonnes (lint), versus 3.3 million in the previous month’s projection, indicating a 12% increase year-on-year.

The expectation is for Brazilian lint consumption to grow by 7.35% this season, reaching 730,000 tonnes in 2024.

“Even with the growth in consumption and exports, the final cotton lint stock is expected to grow by 16.1% and reach a volume of 2.55 million tonnes,” Conab highlighted, also considering exports of around 2.5 million tonnes compared to 1.6 million tonnes in the previous crop.

Conab also revised downward the numbers regarding the area, productivity, and production of the 2024/25 wheat crop, which will begin harvesting in August.

The estimate is for 3.26 million hectares to be planted and 9.59 million tonnes to be harvested, compared to 10.2 million tonnes in the February forecast.

Source: Investing.com

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