Conab ups 2021/22 grain harvest estimate

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) slightly upped its estimate for the 2021/22 market year grain harvest, given the more optimistic prospects for the supply of corn and wheat. As a result, according to the state-owned company’s new projections, Brazil is expected to have a yield of 272.5 million tonnes of grains in the season, a volume 6.7% greater than the previous season.

The total area planted with grains should grow 5.8%, to 73.8 million hectares, while the average productivity of crops should increase 0.9%, to 3,693 kilograms per hectare.

With the second corn crop harvest in progress, Conab raised its production estimate by almost 500,000 tonnes compared to estimates made a month ago, new forecasting a yield of 88.4 million tonnes. This volume represents an increase of 45.6% in production compared to the previous market year, driven by the improvement in productivity and the increase in planted area in Paraná state and Brazil’s Center-West region.

The cereal crop in 2021/22, including the previously harvested first crop, is now predicted to be 115.7 million tonnes, a 32.8% increase over the previous crop.

See below the track record of corn exports from Brazil from January 2021 to May 2022. Data are from DataLiner.

Corn exports from Brazil | Jan 2021 – May 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Conab also increased its estimate for the wheat harvest by around 700 thousand tonnes to 9 million tonnes. Compared with the 2020/21 yield, it represents a 17.6% growth driven both by the improvement in productivity (+10.3%) and by the increase in the cultivated area (+6.6%).

In the case of soybeans, the flagship of Brazilian agribusiness, the production estimate was readjusted slightly downwards to 124 million tonnes, with the end of harvests in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Maranhão. Production dropped 10.2% compared to the previous crop due to the drop in productivity caused by La Niña.

The state-owned company also revised its estimates for rice and bean crops upwards. For rice, the projection is now 10.8 million tonnes — despite the increase in the forecast, the volume is still 8.2% lower than in the last cycle. In the case of beans, the projection is now for just over 3.1 million tonnes or a 7.5% increase.

Finally, Conab revised its estimate for the cotton lint harvest, now calculating a crop under 2.8 million tonnes. Even with the cut, production will still be 18.2% higher than in the last cycle.

See below the track record of cotton exports from Brazil from January 2021 to May 2022. Data are from DataLiner.

Brazil cotton exports | Jan 2021 – May 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Source: Valor Econômico

To read the full original article, please go to: https://valor.globo.com/agronegocios/noticia/2022/07/07/conab-eleva-estimativa-para-safra-de-graos-em-202122.ghtml

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