El Niño again lowers grain harvest forecast

“The delay in the start of the rains in the Central-West, Southeast, and Matopiba regions, followed by irregular and poorly distributed rains, with records of summer rains lasting more than 20 days, as well as high temperatures, are having a negative impact on crop performance,” said CONAB in its 5th Crop Survey report.

The lack of rain and the high temperatures due to the El Niño climate pattern have damaged the soybean and corn crops of the first harvest since planting. Soybean planting has been delayed, which should also affect the second corn crop, according to CONAB.

Soybean production, the flagship of Brazil’s agribusiness, is now expected to be 149.4 million tonnes, 3.4% less than the previous harvest. Compared to the initial forecast of 162 million tonnes, this represents a 7.8% decline. Production of less than 150 million tonnes had already been expected by market analysts.

For corn, CONAB estimated total production at 113.7 million tonnes, 13.8% less than in the 2022/23 cycle. This figure includes three crops. “The first crop, which accounts for 20.8% of total production, faced adverse situations such as high rainfall in the south of the country and low rainfall in the Central West, accompanied by high temperatures,” CONAB noted.

The bean crop estimate fell slightly, but was still close to 3 million tonnes, taking into account the three harvests. In rice, although El Niño initially affected the crop, no losses are expected for the time being. CONAB estimated production at 10.8 million tonnes, 7.6% higher than the 2022/23 crop.

CONAB’s survey was not all negative. The country is expected to see a new record in cotton production, with 3.3 million tonnes of lint. According to the agency, the price and marketing prospects have stimulated an increase in plantings, which grew by 12.8% over the 2022/23 crop.

On Thursday, CONAB also released its first estimate for the winter crop, forecasting a harvest of 10.2 million tonnes of wheat. This figure is 26% higher than the 2022/23 crop. Planting begins this month in the Central-West and will gain momentum in mid-April in Paraná and in May in Rio Grande do Sul, states that account for 82.7% of the country’s wheat production.